Impressive snow totals for eastern Colorado!…

Up at Wolf Creek the sun was out and the snow was fun! – Pic taken 11/9/2024

Saturday – 9 Nov 2024 – 6:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon was 35. The low this morning was 30.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Friday was 12mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
52	69 / 1973	18	-4 / 1948

Precipitation summary… 24-hour snowfall amounts across Archuleta County ranged from zero to 0.3”.

Wolf Creek reported 1” of new snow this morning bringing their storm total to 25”.

CoCoRaHS storm snow totals Across Archuleta County range from 2.1” to 8.2”. Mark was the snow lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake. — *CoCoRaHS storm snow totals across Archuleta County range from 2.1” to 8.2”. Mark was the snow lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake.*

*Storm totals for northeast NM and eastern CO are impressive.*

*For perspective, the Trinidad area got its entire winter average snowfall from this single storm!*

*Early season snowpack numbers aren’t reliable, but… This is a great start!*

Forecast discussion…

Satellite Saturday evening – Flow in our area is out of the north around the low. A layer of pesky stratocumulus clouds was “stuck” over the valley all day. The sun came out at Wolf Creek! The ridge, jagged blue line, will give us dry weather through Monday.

There is nothing on radar in our area Saturday evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** A weak system will move through Tuesday. ***

*** Weather pattern will get active again next week. ***

Rest of Saturday through Monday… Ridging will build over the region. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will warm closer to season averages.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph

Temps… Lows Saturday night will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday… The next system will move through. Upper-level winds, storm energy, and moisture are all weak. My expectations are low – a few spotty snowflakes in the valley and an inch or two in the mountains. The best chance for precip is Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday… Transient ridging will give us lots of blue sky and temps near seasonal averages.

Winds… Wednesday and Thursday afternoon winds will be 10-15mph. Friday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 40s to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Next Saturday through Monday… The next low-pressure system could move through. Right now, it looks pretty weak, but there is still a lot of uncertainty of the storm’s track and strength.

NBM snow to 11pm next Monday shows 1.4” near Pagosa, 2.3” near Chama, and 8-12” near Wolf Creek. There are still a wide range of outcomes for this system. The GFS model has a half inch of snow while the Euro expects 10-14” of snow in the Pagosa area. At this point, I don’t like how the ingredients line up for us and expect low snow amounts. — NBM snow to 11pm next Monday shows 1.4” near Pagosa, 2.3” near Chama, and 8-12” near Wolf Creek. There are still a wide range of outcomes for this system. The GFS model has a half inch of snow while the Euro expects 10-14” of snow in the Pagosa area.
*At this point, I don’t like how the ingredients line up for us and expect low snow amounts.*

The next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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