Pagosa Peak materializes between clouds frosted with new snow – Pic taken 11/7/2024
Thursday – 7 Nov 2024 – 1:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 28 and the low this morning was 27. Clouds cleared out briefly Wednesday evening and temps dropped into the teens between 9pm and midnight.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 18mph around 11pm.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 55 | 70 / 1950 | 19 | 4 / 1943 |
Precipitation summary… Snow fell off and on most of the day yesterday and then again this morning. Wolf Creek reported 8” of new snow this morning bringing their storm total to 22”
Totals in the San Luis Valley are impressive!
Check out the totals outlined in red. 2-3 feet of snow has fallen south of La Veta Pass.
Forecast discussion…
As the low moves through NM, flow in our area will turn from the southeast, and then east, and then northeast. That puts us on the dry side of our mountains. Most of the precip will fall along and east of The Divide.
Forecast highlights…
*** The WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass, has been extended until 5am Saturday. ***
*** Hit and miss snowshowers will persist into early Saturday morning. ***
Rest of Thursday through early Saturday morning… The low is spinning over the central AZ/NM border. Upper-level flow in our area will be out of the southeast putting us on the dry side of the mountains. Most of the snow will fall along and east of The Divide. Spotty hit and miss snowshowers will occasionally move through.
Snow levels…
Thursday afternoon: up to 7,000ft
Thursday night: dropping to 5,500ft
Friday: rising to around 7,400ft
Friday night: dropping to around 6,000ft
Snow amounts during this period…
Wolf Creek area: 4-8”
Valley: a trace to 2”
Chromo and Chama areas: 2-5”
Winds… Gusts Thursday afternoon will be around 20mph. Friday afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Highs Thursday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to low 20s. Highs Friday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows Friday night will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.
*** Expect road closures across eastern CO and northeast NM ***
Saturday through Monday… Ridging will build over the region. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will warm closer to season averages.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Tuesday and Wednesday… The next system will move through. Upper-level winds, storm energy, and moisture are all weak. My expectations are low – a few spotty snowflakes in the valley and an inch or two in the mountains. The best chance for precip is Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph and on Wednesday gusts will be around 15mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Next Saturday and beyond… The weather pattern could get active again with chances for more snow.
My next post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
