Beautiful view from Wolf Creek of Alberta Park Reservoir and the South San Juans – Pic taken 11/5/2024
Tuesday – 5 Nov 2024 – 5:40pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature on Tuesday was 39 and the low this morning was 30.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Tuesday was 8mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 55 | 74 / 1915 | 19 | -3 / 1991 |
Precipitation summary… A couple of spotty snowshowers moved through parts of the county yesterday evening. Snow amounts were light.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft – this includes Wolf Creek Pass. Expect up to 12” of snow between now and 11pm Wednesday. ***
*** The heaviest snow will fall Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Expect poor driving conditions. ***
*** Hit and miss snowshowers will persist Wednesday night into Friday evening. ***
Tuesday evening into Wednesday evening… A strong low-pressure system will slide south along the CO/UT border putting us in the sweet spot for upper-level flow, storm energy, and moisture. We’ll have periods of snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions.
Timing… Light scattered snowshowers are ramping up over the mountains as I type early Tuesday evening. In the valley scattered snowshowers will ramp up later this evening. The heaviest precip will fall late Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Snow will become more hit and miss Wednesday evening.
Snow levels…
Tuesday night: starting around 6,500ft and dropping to 5,000ft
Wednesday: 4,500-5,000ft
Snow amounts for this period…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-16”
Valley above 7,600ft: 4-7”
Valley below 7,600ft: 2-4”
Winds… Gusts will be 10-20mph.
Temps… Lows Tuesday night will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Wednesday will be near 30 to the high 30s and lows Wednesday night will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Wednesday night through Friday evening… The low will take a similar track to the previous one. This means the low will be to our south and we’ll see a similar pattern with hit and miss snowshowers that don’t add up to much.
Snow levels…
Wednesday night: around 3,500ft
Thursday: up to 6,500ft
Thursday night: around 5,000ft
Friday: up to 7,500ft
Snow amounts during this period…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”
Valley: Less than 1” for most places but the lucky spots could get up to 2”, especially in the Chromo and Chama areas.
Winds… Gusts Thursday afternoon will be 15-20mph. Friday afternoon peak winds will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Lows Wednesday night will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Thursday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Thursday night will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Friday will be near 40 to the high 40s and lows Friday night will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Saturday through Monday… Ridging will build over the region. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and temps will gradually warm closer to season averages.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Next Tuesday and Wednesday… The next system could move through 12-13 Nov. Right now it doesn’t look too impressive. There’s still plenty of time for it to take a more favorable track.
My next post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
