Pagosa Weather OCTOBER SUMMARY & November Outlook

The drought map still looks good for southwest Colorado

Tuesday – 5 Nov 2024 – 7pm

October Summary…

The average high for October is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. October precip averages 2.27″ and average snowfall is 3.2″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp was 79 on 1 and 3 October and the lowest temp was 20 on 31 October.

How did we do?

***October mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 3-7 degrees above average.***

This product indicates that October mean precip anomalies were 110-130% below average across much of Archuleta County. — ***This product indicates that October mean precip anomalies were 110-130% above average across much of Archuleta County***.

***CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.76″ to 2.81″. 5 out of 22 locations had more than the average of 2.27″.***

***We got 20.49″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 18.41″***

CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from zero to 1.3″. All locations were below the average of 4″. — ***CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from zero to 1.3″. All locations were below the average of 3.2″.***

We’ve received 0.4″ of snowfall so far this year – below the average of 3.2″ — ***We’ve received 0.4″ of snowfall so far this winter*** – ***below the average of 3.2″***

Wolf Creek Ski Area got 35″ of snow in October – 8″ more than average. Thanks to a big storm that dropped 26" of snow, Wolf Creek opened on 22 October - the first to open in Colorado. — ***Wolf Creek Ski Area got 35″ of snow in October – 8″ more than average. Thanks to a big storm that dropped 26″ of snow, Wolf Creek opened on 22 October – the first to open in Colorado.***

Snowpack and Drought…

1 Nov 2024 am Snowpack CO and US — ***Current snowpack percent of average – NOTE: Values are unreliable early and late in the season***

Colorado drought map on the top still looks good for the southwest part of the state. The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the country is experiencing drought conditions. — ***Colorado drought map on the top still looks good for the southwest part of the state.***
***The US drought map on the bottom shows that much of the country is experiencing drought conditions.***

November outlook…

The average high for November is 49 and the average low is 16. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 November 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 November 1907. November precip averages 1.62″ and average snowfall is 10.0″. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of precip and 54.5″ snow.

The CPC temp outlook for November on the left shows an equal chance for average temps. The precip outlook on the right shows an equal chance for average precip. — ***The CPC temp outlook for November on the left shows an equal chance for average temps.*** ***The precip outlook on the right shows an equal chance for average precip.***

Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 1.89″ of precip for November and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.05″ – Both models expect slightly more than the average of 1.62". — ***Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 1.89″ of precip for November and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.05″ – Both models expect slightly more than the average of 1.62″.***

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

November outlook… November is looking to build a good base of snow for the winter. The Madden Julian is active and will impact us this week. The ENSO is still neutral so the polar front jet with associated fronts and weather is progressing around the northern hemisphere rather than getting stuck. We’ll see above average precipitation and snow for the month and average temperatures.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

One Response

Alan Simoncic says:

November 10, 2024 at 10:52 am

Have to ask a question. Curious about the national precipitation anomaly map for October 2024. It seems that the rainfall with Hurricane Milton alone that areas of GA, SC, NC, etc. would have exceeded their monthly average precipitation totals. What’s the reason for what is reported on the chart?

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