Pagosa Peak dotted with aspen gold and back-dropped by a dark cloud – pic taken 10/9/2024
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Wednesday – 9 Oct 2024 – 6:10pm
Pagosa Weather’s Winter Outlook Presentation…
Arleen has dug deep into Pagosa Country’s WINTER SEASON FORECAST. Come see her presentation!
When: Thursday, 10 Oct at 6pm
Where: Ruby Sisson Library in Pagosa Springs
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday was 75 and on Tuesday it was 74. The low this morning was 39. The cold spots dipped into the high 20s this morning.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Monday was 21mph and on Tuesday it was 35mph(?).
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 84 / 1910 | 28 | 16 / 1975 |
Precipitation summary… There were finally a few raindrops this afternoon. I look forward to CoCoRaHS totals tomorrow.
Forecast discussion…
All eyes are on Hurricane Milton tonight.
Forecast highlights…
*** Cold spots will drop below freezing each night. ***
*** A spotty rainshower is possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons. ***
Wednesday night through Sunday… A blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Monday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Sunday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Monday and Tuesday… A weakening low-pressure will spin over eastern NV and western UT. There won’t be much moisture or storm energy and we’ll be on the eastern edge. We’ll see a few more clouds and a spotty shower over the mountains. The mountains above 11,000ft could get a dusting of snow.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
The 8-14 day period… The forecast models are all over the place for this period, so my forecast confidence is low. The models are hinting at a storm 17-19 Oct that could drop some rain in the valley and some snow in the mountains. It doesn’t look impressive, but it’s a start!
The next forecast post will be on Friday. Hope to see you tomorrow evening at the library!
– Shawn
