Clear conditions, a new moon, and Pagosa’s dark skies make it easy to see the Milky Way! – pic taken 10/5/2024
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Monday – 7 Oct 2024 – 12:15pm
Pagosa Weather’s Winter Outlook Presentation…
Arleen has dug deep into Pagosa Country’s winter season forecast. Come see her presentation!
When: Thursday, 10 Oct at 6pm
Where: Ruby Sisson Library in Pagosa Springs
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday was 76 and on Sunday it was 77. The low this morning was 40. The cold spots dipped into the high 20s this morning.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Saturday was 18mph and on Sunday it was 22mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 80 / 1987 | 29 | 12 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar Monday morning.
Forecast highlights…
*** Cold spots will drop below freezing each night. ***
*** A couple of raindrops are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. ***
*** Next week’s system has just about gone poof. ***
Rest of Monday through Saturday… A blocking high pressure across the southwest US will give us lots of sun and temps 5-10 degrees above average.
Tuesday and Wednesday are the exceptions as a weak tough will try to move through. We’ll see few more clouds and a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Tuesday through Saturday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Sunday and Monday… A weak low-pressure system will move through the region. There won’t be much moisture or storm energy, so it looks like a dud. We’ll see a few more clouds and a spotty shower over the mountains. The mountains above 11,000ft could get a dusting of snow.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.
The 8-14 day period… The forecast models are all over the place for this period, so my forecast confidence is low at this point. Unfortunately, I think the blocking high will win and prevent low-pressure systems from moving through the American Southwest. I expect the weather to remain mostly dry with pleasant fall temps.
The next forecast post will be on Wednesday.
– Shawn
