Lots of sun and pleasant temps for a while…

First snow up at Wolf Creek! – web cam capture 9/21/2024

First snow up at Wolf Creek! – web cam capture 9/21/2024

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Monday – 23 Sep 2024 – 8:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday was 70 and on Sunday it was 60. The low this morning was 40. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field on Saturday was 35mph and on Sunday it was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7183 / 19663320 / 1909

Precipitation summary… Saturday’s rain totals were pretty good!  A few more spotty raindrops fell Sunday afternoon, but precip amounts were light.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Monday morning range from zero to 0.03”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Monday morning range from zero to 0.03”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning range from 0.16” to 0.58”. The rain lottery winners were Mark, just north of Hatcher Lake, and Gerry on Roush.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning range from 0.16” to 0.58”. The rain lottery winners were Mark, just north of Hatcher Lake, and Gerry on Roush.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite on Monday morning – There is weak flow out of the northwest in our area. Moisture is “trapped” in our terrain and could be enough to fuel an isolated shower later today.  The high and ridge over the Pacific NW will shift east towards us Tuesday and give us great weather the rest of the week.
Satellite on Monday morning – There is weak flow out of the northwest in our area. Moisture is “trapped” in our terrain and could be enough to fuel an isolated shower later today.  The high and ridge over the Pacific NW will shift east towards us Tuesday and give us great weather the rest of the week.

There is nothing on radar in our area Monday morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots will continue to drop below freezing each night. ***

*** Lots of sun and pleasant fall temps for a while. ***

Monday through Sunday… Monday afternoon there is residual moisture “stuck” in our area and just enough instability to give us a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but I think most of us will stay dry.

Starting Tuesday a ridge will set up over the region and keep us mostly dry, with lots of sun and temps slight above average.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the mid-60s to 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Tuesday highs will be 70-80 and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.  Wednesday through Sunday highs will be in the mid-70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

NBM precip to 8pm Monday evening shows 0.03" in the Pagosa area. A weak or shower two is possible today, but I think most of us will stay dry.
NBM precip to 8pm Monday evening shows 0.03″ in the Pagosa area. A weak or shower two is possible today, but I think most of us will stay dry.

The 8-14 day period… A funky blocking pattern is setting up that will keep us mostly dry, with lots of sun, and seasonal temps.

Euro ensemble precip to 7 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.35” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.22”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.
Euro ensemble precip to 7 Oct at 6pm on the left expects 0.35” and GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 0.22”. I think it’s going to be pretty dry for the next two weeks.

The next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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