Colorfest in Pagosa Springs this morning – pic taken 9/21/2024
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Saturday – 21 Sep 2024 – 1:35pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday was 75 and so far on Saturday it is 70. The low this morning was 43.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday was 20mph and on Saturday it was 23mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 71 | 85 / 1966 | 34 | 19 / 1978 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Cold spots WILL continue to drop below freezing each night. ***
*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. ***
*** Potential for patchy low clouds and fog Sunday morning. ***
Rest of Saturday… The low is over northeast AZ and moving towards the northeast. It will move nearly over our heads this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms developed rapidly this afternoon. They’ll move quickly towards the north or north-northwest through the afternoon and into the evening. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Showers will decrease after midnight and clouds will partially clear allowing temps to drop. Patchy low clouds and fog are possible in low-lying areas Sunday morning.
*** The mountains above 11,500ft could get 1-2” of snow. Wolf Creek Pass could get a few snowflakes, but I don’t expect any accumulation. ***
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-25mph.
Temps… Highs temps already peaked Saturday in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Sunday… The low will move through eastern Colorado and into Nebraska. Weak cyclonic flow around the low will keep things unsettled over area. Spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible in the afternoon.
*** Sunday morning we could see patches of low clouds and fog in the valley that will burn off by mid-morning. *** Scattered clouds will persist through the day and then clear out overnight.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
Temps… Sunday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Monday and Tuesday… The forecast models continue to be very inconsistent for next week. It looks more likely that a slow-moving trough will meander over the region and keep things unsettled.
We’ll have periods of sun and periods of increased clouds with a chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms each day. I don’t expect much precip.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.
Temps… Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday through Friday… The forecast models are all over the place, but I think a ridge will build over the region and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and pleasant fall temps.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
The next forecast post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
