Tricky forecast for Colorfest weekend…

Our neighbors at sunset last night - pic taken 9/19/2024

Our neighbors at sunset last night – pic taken 9/19/2024

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Friday – 20 Sep 2024 – 3:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday was 67 and on Thursday it was 71. The low this morning was 38.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday was 12mph and on Thursday it was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7283 / 19843518 / 1971

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Upper-level south-southwest flow is pushing a little moisture into our area. The low over southern CA doesn’t have much moisture. It will move nearly over our heads Saturday evening.
Water vapor satellite Friday afternoon – Upper-level south-southwest flow is pushing a little moisture into our area. The low over southern CA doesn’t have much moisture. It will move nearly over our heads Saturday evening.

There is nothing on radar in our area Friday afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Cold spots WILL continue to drop below freezing each night. ***

*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. ***

*** Potential for patchy low clouds and fog Sunday morning. ***

Friday night through Saturday night… A low-pressure system will move over our heads Saturday evening. Moisture on our side of The Divide will be limited but there will be enough instability to make things active.

Mid and upper-level clouds will increase Friday night. A spotty light shower is possible over the mountains towards sunrise.

Shower activity will increase a bit by late morning, mostly over the mountains. The best chance for showers and a few thunderstorms is in the afternoon and into the evening.

*** The mountains above 11,500ft could get 1-2” of snow. Wolf Creek Pass could get a few snowflakes, but I don’t expect any accumulation. ***

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Friday night lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  Highs Saturday will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

NBM forecast radar Saturday 8am to midnight – Showers slowly increase over our mountains after 11am and then over the valley after 2pm. The best chance for showers is roughly 3pm to 8pm.
NBM forecast radar Saturday 8am to midnight – Showers slowly increase over our mountains after 11am and then over the valley after 2pm. The best chance for showers is roughly 3pm to 8pm.
NBM precip to late Saturday evening expects 0.41” near Pagosa and up to 0.60” in our mountains. The forecast models are trending towards higher precip amounts.
NBM precip to late Saturday evening expects 0.41” near Pagosa and up to 0.60” in our mountains. The forecast models are trending towards higher precip amounts.

Sunday… The low will move through eastern Colorado and into Nebraska. Upper-level flow will be out of the northwest in our area and drier air will move in.

*** Sunday morning we could see patches of low clouds and fog in the valley that will burn off by mid-morning. *** Scattered clouds will persist through the day and then clear out overnight.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Monday and Tuesday… The forecast models continue to be very inconsistent for next week. It looks more likely that a slow-moving trough will meander over the region and keep things unsettled Monday and Tuesday.

We’ll have periods of sun and periods of increased clouds with a chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms each day. I don’t expect much precip.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

WPC precip for this period shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts will be spotty and light.
WPC precip for this period shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.20” in our mountains. Precip amounts will be spotty and light.

Wednesday through Friday… The forecast models are all over the place, but I think a ridge will build over the region and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and pleasant fall temps.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

The next forecast post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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