Mostly dry and lots of sun…

Thank you Joe, Steve, and the rest of the San Juan Outdoor Club for leading this fantastic hike!  - pic taken 9/3/2024

Thank you Joe, Steve, and other members of the San Juan Outdoor Club for leading this fantastic hike!  – pic taken 9/3/2024

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Thursday – 5 Sep 2024 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 81 and the high on Thursday was 80. The low this morning was 49.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday was 14% with a dew point of 27. Thursday it was 14% with a dew point of 26.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 8mph and on Thursday it was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854130 / 1962

Precipitation summary… Most of us didn’t report any rain this morning, but Frank reported 0.02” in Hidden Valley.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop Thursday roughly 5-6pm – A low-pressure system is spinning over eastern CO.  We’re in the northerly flow on the backside of the low. The yellow and orange is dry air.  The drier air over UT will move east tonight and tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite loop Thursday roughly 5-6pm – A low-pressure system is spinning over eastern CO.  We’re in the northerly flow on the backside of the low. The yellow and orange is dry air.  The drier air over UT will move east tonight and tomorrow.
Radar at 6:20pm Thursday – There are a couple of weak showers over our mountains that are moving towards the south and southeast. These spotty showers will end in the next hour or two.
Radar at 6:20pm Thursday – There are a couple of weak showers over our mountains that are moving towards the south and southeast. These spotty showers will end in the next hour or two.

Forecast highlights…

*** Mostly dry and lots of sun with warm afternoons and cool mornings. ***

Friday through next Friday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region through Wednesday. There is just enough moisture and instability to give us a slight chance for an isolated storm each afternoon.

Thursday and Friday a low-pressure system will slide by to our north. We’ll see a few more clouds and stronger afternoon winds, but I expect us to stay mostly dry.

Winds… Friday through Wednesday, afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Thursday and next Friday, afternoon peaks will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the low 50s.

NBM precip for this period shows very little near Pagosa Springs and 0.10” to 0.20” in our mountains. There will be a stray shower or two, but it will be mostly dry.
NBM precip for this period shows very little near Pagosa Springs and 0.10” to 0.20” in our mountains. There will be a stray shower or two, but it will be mostly dry.

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken and move southeast into TX. Another low-pressure system will slide to our north.  There will be a couple of chances for scattered showers, but I don’t expect much precip. It’s a typical early fall weather pattern.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 20 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.60” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 1.05”. At this point, I agree with the lower amounts of the Euro.
The Euro ensemble precip to 20 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.60” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 1.05”. At this point, I agree with the lower amounts of the Euro.

The next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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