Scattered afternoon storms…

Is that Pagosa Weather pup Tommy or a mountain goat? – pic taken 8/1/2024

Is that Pagosa Weather pup Tommy or a mountain goat? – pic taken 8/1/2024

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Friday – 2 Aug 2024 – 10:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 88 and the high on Thursday was 89 – just 1 degree short of tying the record. The low this morning was 54.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday was 13% with a dew point of 29. Thursday it was 13% with a dew point of 30. Dew points Friday morning are in the mid-40s – a sign of monsoon moisture moving in.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 22mph and on Thursday it was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19584636 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Most of us didn’t get any precip in the last 24 hours, but our friends near Chromo reported 0.01” and 0.03”.  It’s a start!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Friday morning – A weak low is spinning near the southern CA coast. The subtropical high is wobbling over the Four Corners area. Clockwise flow around the high is pushing a monsoon moisture plume into the region – outlined in green.
Water vapor satellite Friday morning – A weak low is spinning near the southern CA coast. The subtropical high is wobbling over the Four Corners area. Clockwise flow around the high is pushing a monsoon moisture plume into the region – outlined in green.

There is nothing on radar in our region. Radar will get active this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Starting Friday afternoon, the chance for afternoon storms will ramp up each day. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Friday through Thursday… Monsoon moisture and instability will increase leading to better chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More clouds in the afternoons will help keep high temps a little cooler starting Sunday.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Friday and Saturday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

WPC precip to late Thursday evening expects 0.82” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.
WPC precip to late Thursday evening expects 0.82” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.

8-14 day precip… The high will wobble around the Four Corners region so monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us. We’ll continue to see afternoon storms, but they will be hit and miss.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 16 Aug expects 1.75” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.11”.  That’s a big difference but amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 16 Aug expects 1.75” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 3.11”.  That’s a big difference but amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be Sunday afternoon.  I hope to get the July Summary/August Outlook post done later today.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

  1. I am in Alpine Meadows off the 84 on Spence Lake and we received .14” yesterday according to our Ambient Weather system.
    Just thought I’d let you know!
    PS I love your weather reports, always look forward to them, thank you!
    Janet Pentis

    1. Janet, thank you for your kind words and for your report! It’s nice to have the monsoon back again.
      Arleen

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