A bumble bee collecting pollen from a fragrant and colorful Cases Corydalis – pic taken 7/10/2024
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Thursday – 11 July 2024 – 5:20pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 83 and the high so far on Thursday is 83. The low this morning was 47.
The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 16% with a dew point of 32. Today it was 20% with a dew point of 36. This is still marginal moisture. For good monsoon action, I’d like to see the dew points around 50.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 32mph. Today’s peak wind so far is 21mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 83 | 93 / 1958 | 44 | 25 / 1915 |
Precipitation summary… Showers and thunderstorms have been “spotty”. A few lucky spots have received a decent soaking.
We got some very helpful reports, pictures, and videos from the recent storm – thanks!
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly ramp up. It will be more active next week. ***
Rest of today through next Thursday… The high is currently over the Lake Mead NV area and slowly moving east. By Saturday afternoon it is expected to be to our north along the UT/CO border and then it will wobble around the Four Corners area and southern UT for the rest of next week.
This is not ideal for us but will allow a gradual increase in moisture and instability in our area. I expect a 30-40% chance that you will get hit with a rainshower or thunderstorm each day through Sunday. Starting Monday, that will bump up to a 40-60% chance.
Each morning we’ll wake up to bright blue skies. Then scattered cumulus clouds will build over the mountains during the late morning. By early afternoon, some of those cumulus clouds will grow into showers and a thunderstorm or two. Clouds will decrease each evening and we could be treated to pretty sunsets and a rainbow.
*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near a shower or thunderstorm.
Temps… Highs will be in low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.
Other forecast models precip total for the same period: Euro: 0.16”, GFS: 0.55”, WPC: 0.61”, Euro AI: 0.24”, Euro ensemble: 0.21”, GFS ensemble: 0.74”, Canadian ensemble: 1.10”.
8-14 day precip… The high will wobble around the region. Weak monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us.
My next forecast post will be Saturday afternoon.
– Shawn
