Scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms…

A few small thunderstorms developed quickly late yesterday afternoon over parts of the county – pic taken 7/8/2024

A few small thunderstorms developed quickly late yesterday afternoon over parts of the county – pic taken 7/8/2024

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Tuesday – 9 July 2024 – 3:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 88 and the high so far on Tuesday is 80. The low this morning was 46.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 20% with a dew point of 36. Today it was 20% with a dew point of 35. Moisture is slowly increasing.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 18mph. Today’s peak wind so far is 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8496 / 19894428 / 1912

Precipitation summary… A few small spotty showers and thunderstorms dropped a few raindrops late yesterday afternoon.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from zero to 0.07”.  Robet was the rain lottery winner near Hatcher Lake. It’s not much, but it’s a start.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports this morning range from zero to 0.07”.  Robert was the rain lottery winner near Hatcher Lake.
It’s not much, but it’s a start.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite and lighting loop roughly 2pm to 3pm – Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the San Juan Mountains and moving towards the south-southeast.
Visual satellite and lighting loop roughly 2pm to 3pm – Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the San Juan Mountains and moving towards the south-southeast.
Radar at 2:58pm Tuesday afternoon – A few small showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour. They are moving towards the south-southeast.
Radar at 2:58pm Tuesday afternoon – A few small showers and thunderstorms have developed in the last hour. They are moving towards the south-southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly ramp up through the week. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Monday… The high will gradually shift east and weaken. By Wednesday afternoon it is expected to be over eastern NV/western UT. By Saturday afternoon it is expected to be to our north along the UT/CO border.

This is not ideal for us but will allow a little more moisture and instability to creep into our area. The chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm will slowly increase through the week.

Each morning we’ll wake up to bright blue skies. Then scattered cumulus clouds will build over the mountains during the late morning.  By mid-afternoon, a couple of those cumulus clouds will grow into showers and a thunderstorm or two. Clouds will decrease each evening and we could be treated to pretty sunsets and a rainbow.

Forecast shower and thunderstorm movement:

Tuesday: toward the south-southeast, Wednesday: toward the south-southeast, Thursday: toward the south, Friday: toward the south-southwest, Saturday: primarily toward the southwest but “slow movers” will have variable movement, Sunday: primarily toward the west-southwest but “slow movers” will have variable movement.

For “slow movers” keep an eye out for storms developing over your head.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs will be in low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Euro precip to 6pm next Tuesday evening expects 0.11” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get up to 0.50” during the next week. Amounts will vary considerably. Other forecast models precip total for the same period: GFS: 0.15”, WPC: 0.25”, NBM: 0.44”, Euro AI: 0.21”, Euro ensemble: 0.17”, GFS ensemble: 0.66”, Canadian ensemble: 0.87”.
Euro precip to 6pm next Tuesday evening expects 0.11” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm can drop this amount over a small area. Lucky folks could get up to 0.50” during the next week. Amounts will vary considerably.

Other forecast models precip total for the same period: GFS: 0.15”, WPC: 0.25”, NBM: 0.44”, Euro AI: 0.21”, Euro ensemble: 0.17”, GFS ensemble: 0.66”, Canadian ensemble: 0.87”.

8-14 day precip… The high will wobble around the region.  For us it’s a weak monsoon pattern with marginal moisture and instability.

Towards the end of this period, the high could shift to our east into a more favorable position to bring us stronger monsoon moisture.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 24 Jul expects 0.82” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.27”.  That’s a big difference, but it’s all convective showery precip so amounts will vary that much.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6am 24 Jul expects 0.82” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.27”.  That’s a big difference, but it’s all convective showery precip so amounts will vary that much.

My next forecast post will be Thursday afternoon. 

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. As always, you do an excellent job!! Can’t tell you how much I appreciate your work and accuracy. It continues to make a difference in our lives of volunteering, gardening and hiking.

    Dawn & Chris Olson
    Chromo, CO

    1. Dawn & Chris,

      Thank you so much for your kind words. We’re so happy to receive a report that we’re making a positive difference in your lives.

      Arleen & Shawn

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