Feels like spring… But winter returns tomorrow!

Daffodils are popping up around in town. By Saturday morning they could be covered in snow. AI generated image.

Friday & Saturday will be windy with snow late on Friday.

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Thursday – 4 Apr 2024 – 5:00pm

WIND ADVISORY

COZ022-023-051100
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio,
and Pagosa Springs
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 62 and the low this morning was 28.

The peak wind at the airfield this afternoon was 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5672/ 194322-8 / 1945

Precipitation summary… There hasn’t been any precipitation in our area in the last two days.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite 4 Apr 24 15L
Satellite Analysis, Thursday, 4 April ’24, 15L.

Did you look up this afternnon and see the big blue “H” of high pressure and the ridge slide to our east? We’re coming under the southwest flow ahead of an approaching low which is warming us up with above average temperatures. We’re also seeing breezy winds. The area of low pressure is off the northern California coast and sinking to the east-southeast. The cold front is wrapping into southern and central California pushing moisture and showers ahead of it. These showers will arrive in our area Friday evening. There is a good amount of cold air behind the front as indicated by the cloud streets. This air has traveled down from the Gulf of Alaska and will impact our temperatures on Saturday and into Sunday.

Radar: There is nothing on radar that is in our area. Radar images in southern California show moisture streaming in out of the south west.

Forecast highlights…

*** Windy on Friday***

*** More rain & snow Friday evening to Saturday evening. ***

Thursday (today)… Ridge has moved to our east and is moving slowly to the east. We still have lots of sun and pleasant spring temps. Some cirrus (high clouds) are starting to move into the area from the southwest.

Winds… Thursday (today) afternoon peaks will be 18-22mph.

Temps… High temperatures will be in the hi-50s to mid-60s.

Friday and Saturday… An area of low pressure and associated cold front system will start to impact us on Friday. Friday will start out partly cloudy. Clouds and winds will increase throughout the day especially in the afternoon. With the high winds coming from the southwest there is a chance of dust being advected into our area from New Mexico. Saturday will be mostly cloudy to cloudy .

Timing… The first few scattered showers will develop over the mountains Friday afternoon and then over the valley Friday evening. The best chance for precip is Friday evening to around noon Saturday.  However, showers will persist into Saturday evening over the mountains.

Snow levels… Friday afternoon rain is possible up to 9,000ft. The snow level will drop to 7,600ft by midnight Friday and continue to drop to around 4,000ft (!) by sunrise Saturday. So most locations should see rainshowers Friday afternoon which will start switching to snow after sunset and all locations will have snow by Saturday morning. That is some chilly air to drop snow levels 5,000 feet in 12 hours!!!

Precipitation Amounts…

Pagosa and valley areas could see .25″ of precipitation between the rain and the snow. Eastern areas of the county to include Chromo will see higher amounts. The mountains could see .75″.

Precip

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 5-10”

Snow

Winds… Friday gusts in the valley will be 35-45mph and gusts in the mountains will be 45-55mph. The winds will let up a little bit overnight but pick up again Saturday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35mph in the valley. Winds will blow 45 to 55mph the entire period from Friday afternoon through sunset on Saturday.

Note: With these high winds coming from the southwest there is a chance of dust being advected into our area from New Mexico on Friday. Winds will be more westerly on Saturday so dust is not a concern.

Temps… Lows Friday morning will be low-30s to hi-30s. Highs Friday will be in the mid 50s to Lo-60s. Lows Saturday morning will be lo-20s to hi-20s. HIGHS on Saturday will be in the mid-30s to Lo-40s. Not very HIGH!

Sunday and Monday

Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing clouds on Monday. An upper level “disturbance” will approach us from the northwest. As it drops into the base of the trof, it will deepen and an area of low pressure will form by Tuesday. That is six days out so details are fuzzy at this time.

Snow Levels: Snow levels on Sunday will be at 4,000 and increase to 7,000 by late Monday.

Precipitation and Snow amounts:

There will be snow showers in the area Monday afternoon but they are going to stick to over the mountains. The mountains could see a few inches of snow by Tuesday morning.

Winds… Winds will continue to be breezy with gusts of 20-25mph in the valley areas and 35mph in the mountains.

Temps… Low temps on Sunday morning will be lo-teens to upper teens! Brrrr! Highs on Sunday and Monday will be mid-40s to lo-50s. Low temps on Monday will be in the lo-20s.

We’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better.

Wolf Creek has announced on their web page that their last day of operations will be Sunday, April 7th.

Shawn or I will have a post out tomorrow.

– Arleen

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Arleen Pro

Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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