Windy with snow Saturday night and Sunday…

Wolf Creek Ski patrol pups Remy and Zia – Pic taken 29 Feb 2024

Wolf Creek Ski patrol pups Remy and Zia – Pic taken 29 Feb 2024

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Friday – 1 Mar 2024 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 49 and the low this morning was 20. The cold spots dipped into the high single digits this morning.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4563 / 194311-25 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge, jagged blue line, has weakened and moved to our east. Upper-level west-southwest flow will increase over the region. The system off the Pacific Northwest coast will clip us Saturday night and Sunday.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge, jagged blue line, has weakened and moved to our east. Upper-level west-southwest flow will increase over the region. The system off the Pacific Northwest coast will clip us Saturday night and Sunday.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Saturday night to early Sunday afternoon will be windy with periods of snow, blowing snow, and poor visibility. ***

Friday through Saturday evening… The ridge has weakened and moved to our east. Upper-level west-southwest will increase leading to gusty winds. Temps will be slightly above average.

Clouds and winds will increase Saturday ahead of the next system.

Winds… Friday afternoon: 15-20mph. Saturday afternoon through Saturday night: 30-35mph.

Temps… Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Low Friday night will be in the low teens to low 20s. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Saturday night to Monday morning… The next system will move through. It will move west to east, and we’ll catch the southern end of it.  The best storm energy and moisture will be to our north. If the system dips a little farther south, we’ll see slightly higher snow amounts. A little good news: This system will be a little colder so snow will accumulate more efficiently. Bad news: It will be windy.

Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains Saturday evening and in the valley after midnight. The best chance for precip is early Sunday morning to around noon Sunday. Scattered showers will linger into Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-4”

Mountains: 8-15”

Winds… Gusts will be 30-40mph into early Sunday evening. In the mountains winds will gust 60-70mph.

Temps… Lows Saturday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Sunday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

The “official” NWS snow forecast to 5am Monday shows 1-2” near Pagosa, up to 4” closer to the mountains, and 8-12” in our mountains. If the system dips a little farther south, snow amounts will go up a bit.  If the system slides farther north, amounts will go down.
The “official” NWS snow forecast to 5am Monday shows 1-2” near Pagosa, up to 4” closer to the mountains, and 8-12” in our mountains.

If the system dips a little farther south, snow amounts will go up a bit.  If the system slides farther north, amounts will go down.
NBM snow to 5am Monday shows 2.4” for Pagosa, 2” for Chama, 0.9” near Bayfield, and up to 12” in our mountains.   
NBM snow to 5am Monday shows 2.4” for Pagosa, 2” for Chama, 0.9” near Bayfield, and up to 12” in our mountains.   
NBM wind gusts at 8am Sunday shows 44mph near Pagosa, 47mph near Chama, and 60-80mph in our mountains.
NBM wind gusts at 8am Sunday shows 44mph near Pagosa, 47mph near Chama, and 60-80mph in our mountains.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening… Upper-level flow goes zonal – flat, west to east with no significant ridge or trough. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies and very spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. For snow, the lucky spots in the valley could get a dusting and lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch.

Winds… Monday afternoon: 15-20mph. The windy spots could hit 25mph. Tuesday afternoon: 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s, and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens.

Wednesday into Saturday… An active pattern is trying to set up. It doesn’t look organized and precip amounts are on the low side. However, the forecast models are all over the place, so I have no confidence in the details. Stay tuned on this one.

My next post will be tomorrow. I hope to get the February summary/March outlook posted in the next few days.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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