Spectacular sunset colors on Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 18 Feb 2024
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Tuesday – 20 Feb 2024 – 10:10am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 49 and the low this morning was 26.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 12mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 43 | 61 / 1995 | 9 | -20 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** A few mountain snowflakes Monday afternoon and evening. ***
*** Things are trying to line up for a decent storm Sunday night through Tuesday. ***
Rest of Tuesday… The ridge is pushing to our east and upper-level southwest flow is increasing. We’ll see more clouds but stay dry.
Winds… Peaks Tuesday afternoon will be 10-15mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be 20-30.
Wednesday and Thursday… The next trough will move through. It will be weakening and will move quickly, so precip will be minimal.
Snow levels will start 7,000-7,500ft on Wednesday and then drop below 7,000ft Wednesday night. The best chance for precip is Wednesday afternoon. Spotty snowshowers could linger into Thursday, mostly over the mountains.
Snow amounts:
Valley: Less than a half inch in the lucky spots
Mountains: 1-2”
Winds… *** Gusts Wednesday afternoon will be 20-30mph. *** Thursday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low to high 40s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the high teens to high 20s. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Friday through Sunday afternoon… Ridging will be in control and give us mostly sunny skies and near average temps. Sunday clouds and winds will increase as the ridge pushes to our east.
Winds… Peaks Friday and Saturday afternoons will be 10-15mph. Peaks Sunday afternoon will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Lows Saturday night will be in the high teens to high 20s. Lows Sunday night will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Sunday night through Tuesday… Things are trying to line up for a decent storm. Forecast confidence is still low for the details, but here’s my rough first guess:
Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains late Sunday afternoon and over the valley late Sunday evening. Precip will fall steadily early Monday morning into Tuesday morning, then get more hit and miss Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Snow levels… This is the trickiest part of the forecast. Snow levels will bounce around between 7,800ft and 8,300ft Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Monday night snow levels will gradually lower to around 7,200ft. Tuesday snow levels will bounce around between 6,500ft and 7,000ft.
Snow amounts…
Valley below 7,800ft: 2-4”
Valley above 7,800ft: 4-8”
Mountains above 8,500ft: 16-22”
Winds… *** Gusts Monday afternoon and Monday night will be 20-30mph and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph. Winds will gust to around 50mph in the mountains. ***
Temps… Highs Monday will be in the low to mid-40s and lows Monday night will be in the high 20s to low 30s. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid to high 30s and lows Tuesday night will be in the low single digits to mid-teens.
*** Timing, snow levels, and snow amounts will change as the data gets better. ***
Compare these maps. The first part of this system will be warm. Roughly half of that 0.80” of precip near Pagosa will be rain below 8,000ft.
Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
