A Few Mountain Snowflakes Today and Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday…

A foggy morning.

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Sunday – 18 Feb 2024 – 8:45am

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The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 44 and the low this morning was 14.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4360 / 19588-26 / 1942

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

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Water vapor satellite this morning – Clouds are increasing from the west. The trough currently over western UT will move through our area this afternoon. It’s a weak trough and will be even weaker when it moves through.

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Radar this morning – The “precip” near the Four Corners and along the I-70 in CO is either very light or it’s virga (precip that doesn’t reach the ground). Despite all those clouds in the satellite image above, there is little precip.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty mountain snowshowers today and again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. ***

*** Things are trying to line up for a decent storm the first part of next week. ***

Rest of Sunday… A weak trough will move through in the afternoon. We’ll see more clouds and spotty snowshowers over the mountains.  The lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.

Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph in the afternoon.

Temps… Highs on Sunday will be in the high 30s to the high 40s and lows Sunday night will be in the low to high teens.

Monday and Tuesday… We’ll be between troughs. Expect mostly sunny skies on Monday and mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. 

Winds… Peaks Monday afternoon will be 10-15mph and then Tuesday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

Wednesday and Thursday… The next trough will move through. It looks a little more promising than the 2 previous troughs but will be moving quickly.

Snow levels will start 7,000-7,500ft on Wednesday and then drop below 7,000ft Wednesday night. The best chance for precip is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Snowshowers could linger into Thursday, especially over the mountains.

Snow amounts:

Valley: 0-1”

Mountains: 1-3”

Winds… Gusts Wednesday afternoon will be 20-25mph. Thursday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the low to high 40s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the low to high 20s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

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NBM snowfall to Thursday at 5pm shows 0.2” for the Pagosa area, 0.4” for Chama, and 1-3” in our mountains.  This looks reasonable to me.

Friday and Saturday… Ridging will be in control and give us mostly sunny skies and near average temps.

Winds… Peaks each afternoon will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Beyond next Thursday… Another system is trying to line up for 26-28 Feb. It’s too far out to trust the details, but it gives me something to keep an eye on.

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NBM snow to next Thursday, 29 Feb, at 5am shows 5.4” in the Pagosa area, 5.6” for Chama, 2.5” for Bayfield, and 12-20” for our mountains. It’s still too early to focus on the details. I’m tracking the trends closely.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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