Pagosa Weather JANUARY SUMMARY & February Outlook

Snowpack is below average across Colorado

Snowpack on 31 January is below average across Colorado

Saturday – 3 Feb 2024 – 5pm

January summary…

The average high for January is 37 and the average low is 2. The record high of 59 occurred on 1 January 1951. The record low of -42 occurred on 13 January 1963. Precip averages 2.08″ in January with 26.4″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.67″ of precip and 76.1″ of snow.

The high temperature at Stevens Field for December was 53 on 29 Jan and the low temperature was -12 on 12 Jan. On 12 Jan The cold spots got down to the -20s. We had the two coldest locations in Colorado: -33 near the upper Piedra River bridge and -29 in Wildflower!

How did we do?

January mean temperature anomalies for Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above normal.
January mean temperature anomalies for Archuleta County were 1-3 degrees above normal.

January mean precip anomalies were 80-90% of average for most of Archuleta County
January mean precip anomalies were 80-90% of average for most of Archuleta County

CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.25" to 2.24". Most locations were below the average of 2.08".
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.25″ to 2.24″. Most locations were below the average of 2.08″.

We have started the new year with below average precip
We have started the new year with below average precip

CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 15.7" to 37.2". Most locations were below the average of 26.4".
CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 15.7″ to 37.2″. Most locations were below the average of 26.4″.

We’ve received 40.1″ of snowfall so far this year – well below the average of 60.8″
We’ve received 40.1″ of snowfall so far this year well below the average of 60.8″

Wolf Creek Ski Area got 84″ of snow in January – 8" more than average.
So far this season 164″ has fallen – 72″ less than average
Wolf Creek Ski Area got 84″ of snow in January – 8″ more than average.
So far this season 164″ has fallen – 72″ less than average

Snowpack and Drought…

Snowpack needs help for most of the western US. The first 10 days of February should see considerable improvement in our area, AZ, southern NV, and CA.
Snowpack needs help for most of the western US. The first 10 days of February should see considerable improvement in our area, AZ, southern NV, and CA.

The Upper San Juan snotel is 69% of average and Wolf Creek Summit is 67% of average
The Upper San Juan snotel is 69% of average and Wolf Creek Summit is 67% of average
Most of Archuleta County has improved from "severe" drought to "moderate" drought over the last month.
Most of Archuleta County has improved from “severe” drought to “moderate” drought over the last month.

February outlook…

The average high for February is 42 and the average low is 9. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 February 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 February 1916. Precip averages 2.02″ in February with 18.9″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.30″ of precip and 68.7″ of snow.

The CPC temp outlook for February on the left is "leaning" towards above average temps. The precip outlook on the right is "leaning" towards above average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for February on the left is “leaning” towards above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right is “leaning” towards above average precip.
Euro ensemble, on the left, expects 3.83" of precip for February and the GFS ensemble, on the right, expects 4.62" of precip for February. Both are well above the average of 2.02"
Euro ensemble, on the left, expects 3.83″ of precip for February and the GFS ensemble, on the right, expects 4.62″ of precip for February. Both are well above the average of 2.02″.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

February forecast… Temperatures will be around average. We have the potential to see average precipitation & near average snowfall in the first 10 days of the month. That’s in thanks to the MJO moving into the eastern Pacific sector. We’ll dry out mid month. But look for another system the 3rd week of February and a few systems the last week of February. We should wrap up February with above average precipitation & snowfall. El Niño is finally acting like it should!

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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