Next storm Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning…

Low stratus clouds about 200ft above the windmill.  – Pic taken 3 Feb 2024 at 8am

Low stratus clouds about 200ft above the windmill.  – Pic taken 3 Feb 2024 at 8am

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Saturday – 3 Feb 2024 – 11:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 35 and the low this morning was 28.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4054 / 19913-22 / 1914

Precipitation summary… It snowed much of yesterday but temps above freezing made it difficult for snow to accumulate. Most locations got 2-4” of snow.

Wolf Creek reported 10” of new snow in the last 24 hours and 15” for the storm.

CoCoRaHS 2-day liquid equivalent reports in Archuleta County range from 0.57” to 0.90”. Mike in Aspen Springs was the precip winner! Note the 1.35” near Vallecito.
CoCoRaHS 2-day liquid equivalent reports in Archuleta County range from 0.57” to 0.90”. Mike in Aspen Springs was the precip winner! Note the 1.35” near Vallecito.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 1.6” to 5.8”. Arleen was the snow winner at 8,000ft elevation. Udgar had the most snow, 5.5”, in the last 24 hours near Catchpole. Note the 6” near Vallecito. Much of that 1.35” liquid equivalent on the map above was rain.
CoCoRaHS 2-day snowfall reports in Archuleta County range from 1.6” to 5.8”. Arleen was the snow winner at 8,000ft elevation. Udgar had the most snow, 5.5”, in the last 24 hours near Catchpole. Note the 6” near Vallecito. Much of that 1.35” liquid equivalent on the map above was rain.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Fun satellite image this morning! The low is over southeast CO and will slowly sink southeast through the day. The low is tapping Gulf moisture and pushing it into CO. An atmospheric river has its sites on southern CA. It will move into our area Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Fun satellite image this morning! The low is over southeast CO and will slowly sink southeast through the day. The low is tapping Gulf moisture and pushing it into CO. An atmospheric river has its sites on southern CA. It will move into our area Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
Radar this morning – Precip is spinning counter-clockwise around the low over southeast CO. This is a favorable precip pattern for the Front Range, but not us.
Radar this morning – Precip is spinning counter-clockwise around the low over southeast CO. This is a favorable precip pattern for the Front Range, but not us.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Spotty snowshowers today – not much accumulation expected. ***

*** The WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains will expire at 5pm Saturday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.

*** Avalanche danger is rated “considerable”. ***

*** Next storm Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning. ***

*** The third, and possible final, storm is Friday and Saturday. ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Rest of Saturday… The upper-level low will spin near the TX panhandle and wrap moisture into CO. This pattern favors the Front Range, not us. A spotty snowshower is possible in the valley, more likely towards the Chromo and Chama areas. Wolf Creek will see light snow most of the day.

Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas tomorrow morning.

Snow amounts…

Valley: a dusting in a few lucky spots

Mountains: 1-3”

Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the low to high 30s and lows Saturday night will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS snow forecast model shows a trace over the valley, and up to 3” over the south San Juans.
NWS snow forecast model shows a trace over the valley, and up to 3” over the south San Juans.
NWS snow forecast shows heavier snow amounts for the other mountain ranges and along the Front Range.
NWS snow forecast shows heavier snow amounts for the other mountain ranges and along the Front Range.

Sunday through Tuesday morning… Transient ridging will keep us dry. Clouds will increase Monday afternoon as the ridge moves to our east. A few spotty snowshowers are possible over the mountain Tuesday morning, but snow accumulation will be minimal.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Sunday night will in the low teens to low 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the low to high 40s and lows Monday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning – I like how this system is lining up – jetstream support, storm energy, moisture, precipitable water, and flow look good. With a long southerly fetch, it will start off a little warm like the system that just moved through but will cool more quickly and give us a longer period for snow to accumulate.

Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains Tuesday morning and over the valley Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest precip will fall Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Precip will become more showery Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Snow levels…  Will start around 8,000ft Tuesday afternoon, drop to 7,000ft by sunrise Wednesday, bounce around between 6,500ft and 7,000ft until sunset Wednesday, and then stay below 6,500ft the rest of the period.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,400ft: 3-6”

Valley above 7,400ft: 6-10”

Mountains: 20-30”

Winds… Peaks will be around 20mph each day.

Temps. Highs Tuesday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and low Tuesday night will be in the low to mid-30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to high 30s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Thursday will be near 30 to the mid-30s.

NBM total snowfall to Thursday at 11am shows 9.4” near Pagosa, 4.5” near Bayfield, 10.3” near Chama, and 24-36” in our mountains. My thoughts… These totals are a bit high in the valley due to temps at and above freezing during the beginning of this system. It looks reasonable for the mountains, but other models have a little less so I’m leaning towards slightly lower amounts at this point.
NBM total snowfall to Thursday at 11am shows 9.4” near Pagosa, 4.5” near Bayfield, 10.3” near Chama, and 24-36” in our mountains.
My thoughts… These totals are a bit high in the valley due to temps at and above freezing during the beginning of this system. It looks reasonable for the mountains, but other models have a little less so I’m leaning towards slightly lower amounts at this point.

My next post will be Monday morning. I hope to finish the January summary/February outlook later today.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon