Steady snow into the afternoon and then more hit and miss into Saturday afternoon…

Love this falling snow! – Pic taken 2 Feb 2024 at 7:35am

Love this falling snow! – Pic taken 2 Feb 2024 at 7:35am

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Friday – 2 Feb 2024 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 48 and the low this morning was 34.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4053 / 19353-37 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Based on this morning’s reports, the snow level was around 7,800ft most of the night, but rain changed to snow all across the valley 7:30am to 8am this morning.

Wolf Creek reported 5” of new snow this morning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour liquid equivalent reports range from 0.11” to 0.59”. Mike in Aspen Springs was the precip winner!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour liquid equivalent reports range from 0.11” to 0.59”. Mike in Aspen Springs was the precip winner!
IF temps were colder, this would have resulted in 2-6″ of snow.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from a trace to 3.1”. Arleen was the snow winner at 8,000ft elevation.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from a trace to 3.1”. Arleen was the snow winner at 8,000ft elevation.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough is over central AZ and is moving east.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough is over central AZ and is moving east.
Radar this morning – The donut hole is doing its job this morning.  There are scattered showers across the region, but they aren’t showing up in our area.
Radar this morning – The donut hole is doing its job this morning.  There are scattered showers across the region, but they aren’t showing up in our area.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Steady snow into Friday afternoon and then it will be more hit and miss into Saturday afternoon. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains. 1-2 FEET of snow is expected from 5pm Thursday to 5pm Saturday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.

*** An AVALANCHE WATCH has been issued for our mountains. Avalanche conditions will get more dangerous through Friday and Saturday. ***

*** A potentially long-duration storm could impact us Tuesday night, 6 Feb to Saturday, 10 Feb. ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Friday afternoon to Saturday evening… The main part of the storm is over us this morning.  Snow will fall steadily until the trough moves through our area later this afternoon. Then snow will be more hit and miss to Saturday evening as the upper-level low spins over the TX panhandle.

Snow levels… As of 8am, it’s snowing in town!  Snow levels will bounce around between 7,000ft and 7,400ft into late Friday afternoon. They’ll drop below 6,500ft by sunset and stay below 6,500ft through the weekend. Temps will remain at and above freezing resulting in heavy wet snow that is slow to accumulate, especially below 7,400ft.

Snow amounts…

8am Friday to 11pm Friday

Valley below 7,400ft: 2-4”

Valley above 7,400ft: 4-7”

Mountains: 8-14”

11pm Friday to 11pm Saturday

Valley: 1-2”

Mountains: 4-6”

Winds… Peaks will be around 15mph, but the windy spots could see gusts to 20mph Friday afternoon.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the mid to high 30s and lows Friday night will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Saturday will be in the low to high 30s and lows Saturday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

The NWS snow forecast shows 2-3” near Pagosa, 6-8” for the higher parts of the valley, and 12-18” in our mountains.
The NWS snow forecast shows 2-3” near Pagosa, 6-8” for the higher parts of the valley, and 12-18” in our mountains.
NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area is clearer: 3” near Pagosa, 6-8” for the higher parts of the valley, 7” for Chama, less than 1” for Bayfield, 15” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 24” in the south San Juans.
NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area is clearer: 3” near Pagosa, 6-8” for the higher parts of the valley, 7” for Chama, less than 1” for Bayfield, 15” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 24” in the south San Juans.

Sunday through Tuesday morning… Transient ridging will keep us dry. Clouds will increase Monday as the ridge moves to our east. A few spotty snowshowers are possible over the mountain Tuesday morning, but snow accumulation will be minimal.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Highs on Sunday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Sunday night will in the low teens to low 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the low to high 40s and lows Monday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Roughly Tuesday evening into Saturday – Things are trying to line up for a decent storm. It looks more and more like the best period for heavy precip will be Wednesday into Thursday morning.

The Euro model is backing off some while the other models continue to show 7-15” in the valley and 2-3ft in the mountains.

Forecast confidence is still low. There is considerable uncertainty with timing and precip amounts.

NBM total snowfall from today at 6am to Saturday, 10 Feb, at 11pm – This includes snow from the current storm, so we must subtract that. This model and most forecast models expect 7-15” of snow in the valley and 2-3ft in the mountains. *** At this point, I’m tracking the trends. It’s too early to trust the details. ***
NBM total snowfall from today at 6am to Saturday, 10 Feb, at 11pm – This includes snow from the current storm, so we must subtract that. This model and most forecast models expect 7-15” of snow in the valley and 2-3ft in the mountains.
*** At this point, I’m tracking the trends. It’s too early to trust the details. ***

My next thorough post will be tomorrow morning. Plus I’ll do a quick Facebook post this evening and another first thing tomorrow morning. And I’ll get the January summary/February outlook later today or Saturday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Love your weather site. We travel to Pagosa in March and stay off Jacks Pasture with son and his family. Always watch your snow report. Spend a month in Aug sept at Bruce Spruce Ranch. Sent you a donation.

    1. Peggy, Thank you so much! I’m glad we’re able to help in your family’s plans. Safe travels to you in March! We’re in the Jack Pasture area and we have almost 6″ of new snow today bringing the total in the yard to 24″ again.

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