Forecast snow totals are on the rise!

It's Snowtime!

AI imagery created by Mark Langford

Wednesday 12-13-2023. 9:20am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 46 degrees and the low this morning was 28 degrees. Winds gusted to only 8mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 22% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize over the past 24hrs.

Pagosa Springs historical data for December 13th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4060/ 19674-28/ 1961

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Screenshot 2023 12 13 075445 1
Winter weather Advisories are indicated in blue and Winter Storm Warnings in pink. Updated at 2:30pm (12-13-23).

Current watches and warnings:

For Pagosa Springs: New Advisory as of 1:45pm (12-13-23)

San Juan River Basin- Including the city of Pagosa Springs 145 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2023 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET… * WHAT…Snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE…San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Thursday.

Wolf Creek Pass:

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

For locations above 9000 feet...Does not include Pagosa Springs. Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 226 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2023 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches with locally higher amounts. Highest accumulations above 9000 feet. * WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 11 AM this morning to 11 AM MST Thursday.

Screenshot 2023 12 13 085346
While we all know that winter radar is usually unreliable, it is picking up some showers to our SW, moving NE this morning. Image captured at 8:50am.

Forecast discussion…

The cut-off low is presently over Las Vegas, NV and moving SSE. As it approaches us today, look for snow/rain to increase. There will be a chance for rain, snow and even a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. If you live below 7500 feet, you should see more rain than snow during the day with little coverage as temperatures are forecast to rise to 40 degrees. For those of us living in the 7500-8000 foot zone, look for mainly snow during the day along with a chance for thundersnow. With temperatures staying in the 30’s there could be an inch of accumulation during the day. After sunset, the snow will increase in intensity for all areas and showers will linger into Thursday morning.

Screenshot 2023 12 13 085455
The cut-off low is presently over Las Vegas, NV and moving SSE. As it approaches us today, look for snow/rain to increase.
New storm totals
The latest snow forecast for Wednesday-Thursday from Grand Junction NWS.
Updated at 2:30pm (12-13-23).
StormTotalSnowWeb1 CO 1
The latest snowfall forecast from Wednesday-Thursday from the NWS Denver-Boulder office for the state of Colorado.
StormTotalSnow WC 1
The latest snowfall forecast for Wolf Creek pass from Wednesday-Thursday.
Screenshot 2023 12 13 075715
The latest NWS model run is forecasting 4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Wednesday through Thursday and 11 inches for the mountains.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Mostly cloudy with a chance for rain/snow showers and even a couple of thunderstorms with highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds East 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph. Up to an inch accumulation of snow during the day, mainly above 7500 feet. Snow ramps up after sunset, although there could still be some rain/snow mix below 7500 feet.

Snow totals from this morning through noon on Thursday: 2-4 inches of snow for areas below 7500 feet, 4-7 inches for 7500 feet-8000 feet and 10-18 inches for the mountains.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Friday-Saturday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the low to mid 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Sunday-Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and low 20’s and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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