More clouds, spotty showers, and cooler next week…

We’ve had a fantastic fall! Colors are still peaking in some areas. – Pic taken 10/19/2023

We’ve had a fantastic fall! Colors are still peaking in some areas. – Pic taken 10/19/2023

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Saturday – 21 Oct 2023 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 75, just 2 degrees from a record high. The low this morning was 35. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 12%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6077 / 194024-5 / 1910

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge is weakening and moving east.  The two little troughs aren’t going to impact us.  The main low pressure system is expected to dip farther south along the CA coast. Hurricane Norma will move slowly northeast and weaken. Norma’s moisture will move over TX and the southern plains over the next few days.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge is weakening and moving east.  The two little troughs aren’t going to impact us.  The main low pressure system is expected to dip farther south along the CA coast. Hurricane Norma will move slowly northeast and weaken. Norma’s moisture will move over the southern plains over the next few days.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Great fall weather through the weekend. ***

*** More clouds, a few spotty showers, and cooler next week. ***

The rest of today through Sunday… The high pressure is weakening and moving east. Tomorrow we’ll see a few more clouds and slightly stronger winds.

Winds… This afternoon gusts will peak around 15mph. Winds Sunday afternoon will be a little stronger in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Today highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Sunday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

The warm spots will flirt with a record high today:

21th 770

Monday through Friday… A complicated pattern will set up with multiple systems moving across the west US. It’s a split flow pattern so the first system will slide to our south and the second will stay to our north – we’ll just get scraps.  We’ll see a few spotty showers during this period. The best chances are Tuesday and Thursday

Snow levels… Will start near 11,000ft Monday afternoon. Then they’ll bounce around between 10,000ft and 11,000ft until Thursday night when they’ll drop to 9,500ft.

Precip… Scattered showers will start over the mountains late Monday afternoon. *** Wolf Creek Pass could get slick Monday night. *** A few “rainflakes” are possible in the valley Thursday night.

Snow amounts…

Mountains above 10,500ft: 2-4”

Mountains 9,500-10,500ft: 1-3”

Valley: 0.05” to 0.15” rain and 2 or 3 “rainflakes”

Winds… Monday afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25mph range. Tuesday through Friday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Monday and Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.  Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s.  Tuesday and Thursday lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

NBM total precip loop starting Monday at 6pm and going to late Friday evening – Precip starts first over the mountains Monday evening and then spreads across the region Tuesday. Wednesday is mostly dry except for a few showers over the mountains. Showers are spotty and light Thursday. Friday spotty showers persist over the mountains. By the end of the period, 0.12” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.20” for Chama, and up to 0.50” in our mountains. The trend for all of the forecast models is for less precip and higher snow levels.
NBM total precip loop starting Monday at 6pm and going to late Friday evening – Precip starts first over the mountains Monday evening and then spreads across the region Tuesday. Wednesday is mostly dry except for a few showers over the mountains. Showers are spotty and light Thursday. Friday spotty showers persist over the mountains. By the end of the period, 0.12” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.20” for Chama, and up to 0.50” in our mountains.
The trend for all of the forecast models is for less precip and higher snow levels.
NBM total precip for the west US to late Friday evening – This shows the split-flow pattern. The purple arrows indicate the flow while the black outlines the dry area between. On a positive note, the Pacific Northwest, southern NM, TX, and OK really need that precip.
NBM total precip for the west US to late Friday evening – This shows the split-flow pattern. The purple arrows indicate the flow while the black outlines the dry area between.
On a positive note, the Pacific Northwest, southern NM, TX, and OK really need that precip.
This week’s drought map – A few of these drought regions will get a good soaking this week.
This week’s drought map – A few of these drought regions will get a good soaking this week.

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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