Near record highs through Friday – Snow next week?…

We were camped in Bisti Badlands NM for the eclipse – Pic taken 10/14/2023

We were camped in Bisti Badlands NM for the eclipse – Pic taken 10/14/2023

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Wednesday – 18 Oct 2023 – 3:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature so far today is 73 and the low this morning was 33. Humidity bottomed out this afternoon at 14%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6380 / 1951258 / 1968

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge is keeping most of the west US dry. Upper-level northwest flow is pushing a few more clouds into our area.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The ridge is keeping most of the west US dry. Upper-level northwest flow is pushing a few more clouds into our area.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Great fall weather through the weekend. ***

*** More active weather pattern next week. ***

The rest of today through Sunday… High pressure over the west US will give us lots of sun, dry weather, and above average temps. Sunday the ridge will start breaking down so we’ll see a few more clouds and slightly stronger winds.

Winds… Will peak 10-15mph in the afternoons. Winds Sunday afternoon will be a little stronger in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s. The warm spots will be in the upper 70s. Lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. The cold spots will dip into the mid-20s.

The warm spots will flirt with record highs this week:

18th 800

19th 790

20th 770 – This is our best chance for a new record high!

Monday through Friday… A complicated pattern will set up with multiple systems moving across the west US. It’s a split flow pattern so the first system will slide to our south and the second will stay to our north – we’ll just get scraps.  We’ll see on and off scattered showers through this period.

Snow levels… Will start near 10,500ft Monday afternoon. They’ll drop to 10,000ft Tuesday and then bounce around between 9,000ft and 10,000ft until Thursday night when they’ll drop into the 7,500-8,000ft range.

Precip… Scattered showers will start over the mountains Monday afternoon. Precip will fall on and off into Friday morning.  *** Wolf Creek Pass could get slick Monday night. ***

Folks above 8,000ft in the valley could see “rainflakes” Tuesday and Wednesday nights.  Lucky folks in the valley could wake up to a dusting Friday morning.

Rough first guess snow amounts…

Mountains above 10,500ft: 4-8”

Mountains 9,000-10,500ft: 3-6”

Valley above 7,500ft: trace to a half inch

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.  Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Lows Thursday night will be in the high 20s to high 30s and then Friday night they’ll be in the low 20s to low 30s.

NBM total precip loop starting Monday at 6am and going through 27 Oct at 6pm – Precip starts first over the mountains Monday afternoon and then spreads across the region Monday night. Then it comes in spotty, short bursts through Friday morning. By the end of the period, 0.53” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.54” for Chama, and up to 1.3” in our mountains. The long-range ensembles through the same period are 0.68” for the GFS, 0.67” for the Canadian, and 0.72” for the Euro.
NBM total precip loop starting Monday at 6am and going through 27 Oct at 6pm – Precip starts first over the mountains Monday afternoon and then spreads across the region Monday night. Then it comes in spotty, short bursts through Friday morning. By the end of the period, 0.53” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.54” for Chama, and up to 1.3” in our mountains. The long-range ensembles through the same period are 0.68” for the GFS, 0.67” for the Canadian, and 0.72” for the Euro.
NBM total snowfall to 27 Oct at 6pm – This forecast model indicates 0.3” of snow for the Pagosa area, 0.3” for Chama, and up to 10” for our mountains. My thoughts… I expect less rain in the valley and less snow in our mountains because the best storm energy and moisture will miss us.
NBM total snowfall to 27 Oct at 6pm – This forecast model indicates 0.3” of snow for the Pagosa area, 0.3” for Chama, and up to 10” for our mountains.

My thoughts… I expect less precip in the valley and less snow in our mountains because the best storm energy and moisture will miss us.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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