Fantastic fall weather through the weekend…

Fall colors at Williams Creek Reservoir – Pic taken 10/11/2023

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Monday – 16 Oct 2023 – 4:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature today was 71 and the low this morning was 33. Humidity bottomed out this afternoon at 15%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 8mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
64	78 / 1958	26	11 / 1956

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s dry over the southwest US. The ridge is forcing systems well to our north. Upper level flow in our region is out of the northwest and will stay dry this week.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Great fall weather through the weekend. ***

*** More active weather pattern next week. ***

The rest of today through Sunday… High pressure over the west US will give us lots of sun, dry weather, and pleasant fall temps. Sunday the ridge will start breaking so we’ll see a few more clouds and slightly stronger winds.

Winds… Will peak 10-15mph in the afternoons. Winds Sunday afternoon will be a little stronger in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s. The warm spots will be in the upper 70s. Lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. The cold spots will dip into the mid-20s.

The warm spots will flirt with record highs this week:

16^th 78⁰

17^th 78⁰

18^th 80⁰

19^th 79⁰

20^th 77⁰ – This is our best chance for a new record high!

Next week… The jet steam will dig a little farther south and get more active. A couple of low pressure systems could drop rain across the lowlands and snow over the mountains of much of the western US, especially the Pacific Northwest.

500mb 22 Oct at noon to 29 Oct at noon – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the over weather pattern. Warm colors indicate high pressure and boring weather, and cool colors indicate more active weather. This starts with ridging and boring weather. By Monday evening a low pressure system is over the Great Basin. We’re on the eastern edge of it. By Tuesday evening, a deeper low pressure system moves over WA state and the trough digs a little farther south and pushes a little farther east. Then the system gradually weakens over the western US. Summary: This is an active pattern for the western US and could bring a decent amount of lowland rain and mountain snow, especially for the Pacific Northwest. — 500mb 22 Oct at noon to 29 Oct at noon – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the over weather pattern. Warm colors indicate high pressure and boring weather, and cool colors indicate more active weather.

This starts with ridging and boring weather. By Monday evening a low pressure system is over the Great Basin. We’re on the eastern edge of it. By Tuesday evening, a deeper low pressure system moves over WA state and the trough digs a little farther south and pushes a little farther east. Then the system gradually weakens over the western US.

*Summary: This is an active pattern for the western US and could bring a decent amount of lowland rain and mountain snow, especially for the Pacific Northwest.*

NBM total precip loop starting Sunday, 22 Oct at noon and going through 27 Oct at noon – Zero precip is expected until next Monday afternoon. By the end of the period, 0.48” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.50” for Chama, and up to 1.2” in our mountains. The long-range ensembles through the same period range from 0.72” for the GFS, to 1.05” for the Canadian, and 1.06” for the Euro. — NBM total precip loop starting Sunday, 22 Oct at noon and going through 27 Oct at noon – Zero precip is expected until next Monday afternoon. By the end of the period, 0.48” is expected for the Pagosa area, 0.50” for Chama, and up to 1.2” in our mountains.
*The long-range ensembles through the same period range from 0.72” for the GFS, to 1.05” for the Canadian, and 1.06” for the Euro.*

NBM total snowfall to 27 Oct at noon – This forecast model indicates 0.1” of snow for the Pagosa area, 0.3” for Chama, and up to 12” for our mountains. My thoughts… This system is more than a week out, so I don’t trust the details. At this point, I track the trends, and I’m liking the trends! — *NBM total snowfall to 27 Oct at noon – This forecast model indicates 0.1” of snow for the Pagosa area, 0.3” for Chama, and up to 12” for our mountains.*

*My thoughts… This system is more than a week out, so I don’t trust the details. At this point, I track the trends, and I’m liking the trends!*

My next post will be Wednesday evening unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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