Toner Mountain under multiple layers of clouds this morning – pic taken 9/12/2023
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Tuesday – 12 Sep 2023 – 11:00am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 70 and the low this morning was 48. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 32%.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 18mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 90 / 1945 | 39 | 28 / 1957 |
Precipitation summary… We got more rain! Amounts varied considerably.
In the circle, the lowest and highest rain amounts in the county are within 5 miles of each other.
Fire updates…
Quartz Ridge Fire link
Bear Creek Fire link
Forecast discussion…
Forecast Highlights…
More clouds, cooler temps, scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
*** Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible today and again tomorrow afternoon into the evening. ***
*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,500ft Thursday morning! ***
*** The cold spots in the valley will flirt with freezing temps Friday and Saturday mornings. ***
Rest of today through Friday… Tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Jova is moving through the Four Corners region. A trough will move west to east across the area tonight and then another trough will move northwest to southeast on Friday. Moisture is at its peak today but enough sticks around to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
Today we’ll see periods of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday will still be active, but showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered. Thursday and Friday showers and thunderstorms will be more hit and miss as moisture decreases across area.
Snow levels…
Snow levels will be 13,000-13,500ft until Wednesday evening. If clouds clear enough, keep an eye on our 13’ers – Rio Grande Pyramid to the northwest and Montezuma and Summit Peaks to the east-northeast – for snow!
Wednesday night snow levels will drop to around 12,500ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass or the ski area.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will range from the low to high 60s and lows will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s. Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Friday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps Friday and Saturday mornings.
NBM precip to Friday evening on the right shows 0.99” for the Pagosa area, 1.45” for Chama, and up to 2” in our mountains.
These models expect similar amounts of precip but very different amounts of snow. This is due to the different outcomes with cooler air. The Euro expects cooler air and lower snow levels while the NBM and most of the other models are slightly warmer.
We forecasters are continuously verifying how the models are doing and then choose the model handling things the best. In this case, based on numerous reports and pictures from around the state of recent snow on the high peaks and along Trail Ridge Road, elevation 12,183ft, in Rocky Mountain National Park, the Euro is handling the cooler air better. However, we are farther south and more under the influence of a “warm” tropical airmass. In my opinion, that will change after the trough moves through tonight which will drop snow levels in our area.
At this point, I think the Euro is a little too cold and the other models are a little too warm so I’m going with something in the middle. I’m splitting hairs over a difference of 500-1000ft. In weather, the more precise we get, the more likely we are to be wrong! That’s alright – We do our best and always want to be accurate.
Saturday and Sunday… High pressure will build back over the region. We’ll see a lot of sun, remain dry, and have pleasant seasonal temps.
Winds… Winds each morning will be light and variable. Beginning around 11am each day winds will increase into the 10-20mph range out of the southwest.
Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
