That was a good soaking!  It’s not over…

Snow on Montezuma and Summit Peaks! – Wolf Creek cam capture 9/13/2023 at 6:40am

Snow on Montezuma and Summit Peaks! – Wolf Creek cam capture 9/13/2023 at 6:40am

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Wednesday – 13 Sep 2023 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 59 and the low this morning was 47. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 69%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7489 / 19903823 / 1950

Precipitation summary… We got a good soaking yesterday! So far my snow forecast is panning out nicely.  There was a light dusting of snow above 12,500ft and our 13’ers are white this morning!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.27” to 0.75”. The rain lottery winner was Lisa in Loma Linda. That’s two days in a row.  She has a 3-day rain total of 1.61”!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.27” to 0.75”. The rain lottery winner was Lisa in Loma Linda. That’s two days in a row.  She has a 3-day rain total of 1.61”!

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The main batch of moisture has pushed to our southeast. There is still plenty of moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough will move through our area on Friday.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The main batch of moisture has pushed to our southeast. There is still plenty of moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough will move through our area on Friday.
Radar this morning at 8am – There was one little shower moving east through Archuleta County. Radar will get active again this afternoon.
Radar this morning at 8am – There was one little shower moving east through Archuleta County. Radar will get active again this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights…

Cooler temps, scattered afternoon showers, and thunderstorms through Friday.

*** Isolated, brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible each afternoon and evening through Friday. ***

*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,500ft through Thursday and then above 12,000ft on Friday. ***

*** Protect your plants Friday night/Saturday morning. The cold spots in the valley will drop below freezing. ***

Rest of today through Friday… Plenty of moisture is still in the area to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Friday. The next trough will move northwest to southeast across the region on Friday.

Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas each morning.

Snow levels…

Snow levels will bounce around between 12,500ft and 13,000ft through Thursday. On Friday snow levels could drop to 12,000ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Today highs will range from the low to high 60s and lows will range from the high 30s to mid-40s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the mid-60s to  low 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The cold spots will drop below freezing Saturday morning.

NBM precip to Friday evening shows 0.54” for the Pagosa area, 0.50” for Chama, and up to 1.30” in our mountains.
NBM precip to Friday evening shows 0.54” for the Pagosa area, 0.50” for Chama, and up to 1.30” in our mountains.
HRRR forecast radar from 10am this morning to 1am tonight – The first spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 3-7pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.
HRRR forecast radar from 10am this morning to 1am tonight – The first spotty showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains by noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 3-7pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday… High pressure will build back over the region.  We’ll see a lot of sun and have pleasant seasonal temps. There is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Saturday and Monday afternoons, mostly over the mountains. Otherwise, it will be dry.

Winds… Winds each morning will be light and variable.  Beginning around 11am each day winds will increase into the 10-20mph range out of the southwest.

Temps… Highs on Saturday will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  On Sunday and Monday highs will be in the low to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing each morning.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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