The case of the meandering high pressure…


Three bear cubs enjoy an afternoon of playing around near a seasonal pond behind our home near Coyote Loop Trail. © 2023-Mark Langford

Wednesday 7-19-2023. 11:15am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 91 degrees. The low this morning was a mild 63 degrees. Winds gusted to 21mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: The was no precipitation to summarize yesterday!

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 19th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8296/ 19894735/ 1956


361072152 661989805431532 3098945592349457404 n

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
The Springs Thank you Summer 1
The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort! 
Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation! 
$25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week
 *Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*

Forecast discussion…

While humidity is on the rise, (note warmer overnight temperatures) and our monsoon is trying to get activated, the location of high pressure is not ideal for us to receive much rainfall this week…but we will take whatever we can get! A meandering high pressure will start off to our south, migrate into the Four Corners this weekend, then move into a more traditional monsoon position by later next week. While we will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, they will remain very spotty with low rainfall totals. Most of the moisture in the short term will stay to our east and southeast.

High pressure, (shown in the darkest red tones) is currently south of us, giving us a zonal flow.
High pressure will be centered over the Four Corners this weekend…not ideal for us to see much rain.
By Thursday of next week, high pressure will be in a better position for us to see an increase in coverage and rainfall totals from afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Screenshot 2023 07 19 095247
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast predicts 0.02 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.12 inches for Chama, NM.
Screenshot 2023 07 19 100621
The latest NBM model is now predicting only 0.01 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.25 inches for Chama, NM. from today through Monday.
The latest GFS model is predicting 0.02 inches of rain from today through Monday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy and warm with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph.

Rainfall totals 0-0.05.

Thursday-Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph. Daily rainfall totals 0-0.05 inches.

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