The case of the meandering high pressure…

Cubs

Three bear cubs enjoy an afternoon of playing around near a seasonal pond behind our home near Coyote Loop Trail. © 2023-Mark Langford

Wednesday 7-19-2023. 11:15am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 91 degrees. The low this morning was a mild 63 degrees. Winds gusted to 21mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: The was no precipitation to summarize yesterday!

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 19th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8296/ 19894735/ 1956

FIRE DANGER IS HIGH 

361072152 661989805431532 3098945592349457404 n

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
The Springs Thank you Summer 1
The first week of Pagosa Springs monsoon is brought to you by The Springs Resort! 
Enjoy the season of Rain and Relaxation! 
$25 Discounted Local Rate Available 9 am – 10 pm, 7-Days a Week
 *Must have a valid state-issued ID, with residence within 60 miles*

Forecast discussion…

While humidity is on the rise, (note warmer overnight temperatures) and our monsoon is trying to get activated, the location of high pressure is not ideal for us to receive much rainfall this week…but we will take whatever we can get! A meandering high pressure will start off to our south, migrate into the Four Corners this weekend, then move into a more traditional monsoon position by later next week. While we will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, they will remain very spotty with low rainfall totals. Most of the moisture in the short term will stay to our east and southeast.

Weds
High pressure, (shown in the darkest red tones) is currently south of us, giving us a zonal flow.
Sun
High pressure will be centered over the Four Corners this weekend…not ideal for us to see much rain.
Thurs
By Thursday of next week, high pressure will be in a better position for us to see an increase in coverage and rainfall totals from afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Screenshot 2023 07 19 095247
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast predicts 0.02 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.12 inches for Chama, NM.
Screenshot 2023 07 19 100621
The latest NBM model is now predicting only 0.01 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.25 inches for Chama, NM. from today through Monday.
GFS
The latest GFS model is predicting 0.02 inches of rain from today through Monday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy and warm with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph.

Rainfall totals 0-0.05.

Thursday-Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph. Daily rainfall totals 0-0.05 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon