A slow start to our monsoon season…


A late afternoon thunderstorm peaks its head over Eagle Mountain last week. ©2023-Mark Langford

Monday 7-17-2023. Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 92, which tied the record of 92 degrees set back in 1956. The low this morning was 52 degrees. Winds gusted to 22mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 10% yesterday afternoon.

*** Record high temps possible through Tuesday. ***

Precipitation summary: The was no precipitation to summarize yesterday!

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 17th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8391/ 19104635/ 1907

*** FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH and will gradually get worse as temps warm and fuels continue to dry out. ***

very high fire danger

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions
Map of Stage 1 Fire Restrictions

Forecast discussion…

Screenshot 2023 07 17 104757

High pressure over southern Nevada and western AZ that has produced record highs over the past few days, will slowly drift east into New Mexico this week. As that occurs, some moisture will move into the mid-levels, giving us a chance for some PM Poppers starting on Tuesday. Unfortunately, there still isn’t much moisture to work with and we could see several days of mainly dry thunderstorms, which as we all know around here, can be a real problem, due to their ability to ignite fires from lightning. On the plus side, look for high temperatures to drop back down into the 80’s instead of the 90’s starting on Wednesday.

Screenshot 2023 07 17 103450
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast predicts under 0.05 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2023 07 17 103614
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.10 inches of rain from today through Saturday.
Screenshot 2023 07 17 103703
The latest GFS model is predicting 0.07 inches of rain from today through Saturday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy and hot with highs in in the low to mid 90’s. The record high of 91 degrees at the airport could be in jeopardy! Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph.

Wednesday-Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph. Daily rainfall totals 0-0.05 inches.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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