Clearing skies, then lots of wind!

House and Turbine

Hoping my wind turbine can generate 1.21 gigawatts of electricity today with all of the wind forecast…perhaps enough to send me “Back to the Future!”

Tuesday 6-27-2023. 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 and the low this morning was 56 degrees. Winds gusted to 29mph yesterday. Humidity bottomed out at 15% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Rainfall totals from last night’s storms ranged from zero to 0.05 inches at Shawn and Arleen’s home!

Screenshot 2023 06 27 084511
COCORAHS rainfall reports ranged from 0.02-0.05 from last night’s storms.
Screenshot 2023 06 27 080753
Remote sensors for Archuleta County recorded 0-0.04 of rainfall overnight.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8295/ 19903926/ 1965
Screenshot 2023 06 27 080913 1
Red Flag warnings today and a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow.

Red Flag Warning Today:

…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 295 BELOW 9000 FEET…

…FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 295 BELOW 9000 FEET…

The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Fire
Weather Watch below 9000 feet for gusty winds, low relative
humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Wednesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA…In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest
Colorado Upper East Forecast Area below 9000 feet.

* WINDS…Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Tomorrow, southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY…10 to 15 percent.

* LIGHTNING…Tuesday will also present chances for lightning
with very little to no precipitation reaching the ground.

* IMPACTS…Conditions will become favorable for easy ignition
and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and
strong gusty winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Forecast discussion…

Storms moved in around 3am this morning ahead of the trough, making a lot of noise for such little rain! I got very little sleep the rest of the night with almost constant thunder and lightning through daybreak. The clouds and rain will move east today, opening the door to clearing skies and wind gusts approaching 45 mph. To add even more fun into the mix, look for a chance for blowing dust (and pine pollen) during the afternoon, today through Thursday. Look for a slight break in the winds by Friday. Models are hinting at another slight chance for rain on Monday, but we shall see.

Screenshot 2023 06 27 082716
Drier air in the mid-levels (yellow tones) is moving in from the west as the disturbance moves east.
Screenshot 2023 06 27 081128 1
The latest HRRR model predicts wind gusts over 40mph this afternoon.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with highs in low to mid 80’s. SW winds 15-25mph with gusts to 45. Patchy blowing dust this afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mostly sunny. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 80’s. SW winds 15-25mph, with gusts to 35mph. There could be some patchy blowing dust on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Friday-Sunday: Mostly sunny. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 70’s to low 80’s. SW winds 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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Mark Langford

Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford
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