Wind is our weather nemesis of the week!

Mule's Ears

Mule’s Ears or Wyethia, are still in full bloom along Coyote Loop Trail.

Monday 6-26-2023. 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82 and the low this morning was 45 degrees. Winds gusted to 25mph. Humidity bottomed out at 7% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no measurable precipitation reported in the past 24 hours.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8194/ 19903922/ 1951
Screenshot 2023 06 26 075231
A large area of the Four Corners is under a Red Flag Warning today and tomorrow.

Red Flag Warning Today:

…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 295 BELOW 9000 FEET…

The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a Red
Flag Warning below 9000 feet for gusty winds, low relative
humidity and dry fuels, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT
Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA…In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest
Colorado Upper East Forecast Area below 9000 feet.

* WINDS…Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on
Monday. Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on
Tuesday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY…12 to 17 percent.

* LIGHTNING…Tuesday will also present chances for lightning
with very little to no precipitation reaching the ground.

* IMPACTS…Conditions will become favorable for easy ignition
and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and
strong gusty winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Forecast discussion…

A passing trough to our north and some moisture moving up from Baja through New Mexico, will give us a tiny chance for some showers and thunderstorms from early on Tuesday morning through the afternoon. The main player will be the wind…with gusts over 35mph today and over 40mph on Tuesday. As noted above, we are under a Red Flag Warning today and tomorrow. Unfortunately, there isn’t much moisture for this system to work with, so rainfall totals will likely remain under a 0.05 of an inch for Pagosa Springs. Look for a slight break in the winds by Friday.

Screenshot 2023 06 26 084817
A trough will pass to our north over the next 24 hours, giving us a tiny chance for some thunderstorms and a really good chance for wind!
Screenshot 2023 06 26 075436
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is not predicting any measurable amount of rain for Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2023 06 26 085519
The latest NBM model predicts wind gusts to over 40mph on Tuesday.
Screenshot 2023 06 26 090301
San Juan River flow this morning is 889cfs, compared with only 239cfs on this date last year!

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly sunny with highs in low to mid 80’s. SW winds 15-25mph with gusts to 40.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for thunderstorms and showers after midnight. Lows in the 40’s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. A tiny chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80’s. SW winds 15-25mph, with gusts to 45mph. Patchy blowing dust is possible in the afternoon.

Rain totals 0-0.05.

Wednesday-Thursday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 80’s. SW winds 15-25mph, with gusts to 35mph. There could be some patchy blowing dust on Wednesday afternoon.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 70’s to low 80’s. SW winds 11-15mph, with gusts to 25mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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