Windy Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday…

Frosted scrub oak yesterday morning – Pic taken 4/15/2023

Frosted scrub oak yesterday morning – Pic taken 4/15/2023

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Sunday – 16 Apr 2023 – 10:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 51 and the low this morning was 24. Our low was 15 in the southern end of O’Neal Park. Still no wind data for Stevens Field so our peak wind on Friday was 36mph as a band of showers moved through around 4:30pm. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon was 14mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6075 / 1985249 / 1951

Precipitation summary… No precip fell in the last 24 hours. Below are CoCoRaHS 24-hour reports on Saturday morning which includes precip that fell on Friday.

On Friday at least two bands of heavy precip and a couple of isolated thunderstorms moved through parts of the county. Precip fell fast and furious for all of 15-20 minutes each time for most of us. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported yesterday morning ranged from 0.03” to 0.21”. The precip lottery winner was Mike south of Highway 160 in Aspen Springs.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported yesterday morning ranged from 0.03” to 0.21”. The precip lottery winner was Mike south of Highway 160 in Aspen Springs.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reported yesterday morning ranged from a trace to 0.7”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reported yesterday morning ranged from a trace to 0.7”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The jet stream, yellow arrows, are flowing up and over the ridge, blue jagged line. The ridge will move over our heads tonight and then upper level flow will increase out of the southwest and kick up our winds Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The jet stream, yellow arrows, is flowing up and over the ridge, blue jagged line. The ridge will move over our heads tonight and then upper level flow will increase out of the southwest and kick up our winds Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.

There is nothing significant on radar in our region this morning.

Important highlights…

*** Colder temps have eased our run-off problems a bit, but warmer temps will increase run-off over the next few days.  ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, hit 2,310cfs late Thursday evening and has since dropped below 1,000cfs due to colder air temps.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 4,110cfs Friday morning and has dropped to around 1,800cfs this morning due to colder air temps.  Navajo Reservoir Friday had an inflow of 7,062cfs* and an outflow of 290cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose 1.31 feet in 24 hours.  Yesterday the inflow dropped to 4,686cfs while the outflow was 292cfs.
San Juan River, top, hit 2,310cfs late Thursday evening and has since dropped below 1,000cfs due to colder air temps.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 4,110cfs Friday morning and has dropped to around 1,800cfs this morning due to colder air temps. 

Navajo Reservoir Friday had an inflow of 7,062cfs* and an outflow of 290cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose 1.31 feet in 24 hours.  Yesterday the inflow dropped to 4,686cfs while the outflow was 292cfs.

Rest of today through Monday… Upper level ridging is in control and will continue to give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps. We’ll see a few more mid and high clouds tomorrows as the ridge scoots to the east.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Monday highs will be 60-70 and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Winds… Peaks this afternoon will be around 15mph and then tomorrow afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.

Tuesday through Thursday… The ridge will move to our east and upper level southwest flow will increase. A couple of fast moving systems will miss us to the north. We’ll see a few more clouds and gusty afternoon winds.

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.  Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be in the 30-35mph range. The windy spots could hit 40mph on Wednesday. Winds will decrease a little on Thursday with peaks in the 25-30mph range.

NBM forecast max wind gusts shows 34mph on Tuesday, 43mph on Wednesday, and 31mph on Thursday for the Pagosa area. In the high country winds will peak around 60mph on Tuesday and Wednesday.
NBM forecast max wind gusts shows 34mph on Tuesday, 43mph on Wednesday, and 31mph on Thursday for the Pagosa area. In the high country winds will peak around 60mph on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday and Saturday… Drier and more stable upper level northwest flow will take over as the next ridge tries to build over the western US. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through but we’ll see lots of sun.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.

15-day outlook…

The pattern will try to get more active starting Sunday or Monday next week, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon. It’s wind season, so most afternoons winds will gust into the 15-25mph range.

This is Euro ensemble 15-day 24-hour precip amounts, total precip, and max wind gusts. It’s a lot of data but these are some of our best long-range forecast products.  The quick summary starting at the top… It will be dry through at least Saturday and then the pattern might get more active.  I say “might” because the pattern is weak, and I don’t see any organized weather systems. Total precip in the middle indicates less than 0.40”.  That’s not much for a 15-day period. Max wind gusts at the bottom show peaks 30-40mph Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday and then we settle into our typical spring wind pattern with 20-25mph each afternoon.
This is Euro ensemble 15-day 24-hour precip amounts, total precip, and max wind gusts. It’s a lot of data but these are some of our best long-range forecast products. 

The quick summary starting at the top… It will be dry through at least Saturday and then the pattern might get more active.  I say “might” because the pattern is weak, and I don’t see any organized weather systems.

Total precip in the middle indicates less than 0.40”.  That’s not much for a 15-day period.

Max wind gusts at the bottom show peaks 30-40mph Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday and then we settle into our typical spring wind pattern with 20-25mph each afternoon.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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