That was fun!  Warmer, dry, and light winds Saturday through Monday…

“If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”  – Pics taken just 6 minutes apart on 4/14/2023

“If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”  – Pics taken just 6 minutes apart on 4/14/2023

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Friday – 14 Apr 2023 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 46 and the low this morning was 35. Still no wind data for Stevens Field so our peak wind in the southern part of O’Neal Park was 30mph as a band of showers moved through around 4:30pm.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5976 / 1940237 / 1996

Precipitation summary… Parts of the county got 0.02” overnight.  The Wolf Creek area got 1-2” of snow overnight and another 1-2” during the day.

Spotty showers continued to move through the county during the day.  Around 4:30pm, a band of moderate to heavy rain, snow, and graupel moved through.  Precip amounts for those will be included in tomorrow’s CoCoRaHS reports.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning loop from roughly 2-4pm this afternoon – Showers and thunderstorms fired up along the trough and moved east across the county.
Satellite and lightning loop from roughly 2-4pm this afternoon – Showers and thunderstorms fired up along the trough and moved east across the county.
Radar this afternoon at 4:22pm – A band of showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two was moving east through the county. Visibility here in the south end of O’Neal Park briefly dropped to a half mile and we had a wind gust to 30mph. We heard a couple of thunder BOOMS.
Radar this afternoon at 4:22pm – A band of showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two was moving east through the county. Visibility here in the south end of O’Neal Park briefly dropped to a half mile and we had a wind gust to 30mph. We heard a couple of thunder BOOMS.

Important highlights…

*** High run-off and saturated soil are causing problems across the county.  ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, hit 2,300cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 4,110cfs this morning.  Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 6,610* and an outflow of 288cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose 1.24 feet in 24 hours.
San Juan River, top, hit 2,300cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, hit 4,110cfs this morning. 

Navajo Reservoir yesterday had an inflow of 6,610* and an outflow of 288cfs. *That is the highest inflow so far this spring. It rose 1.24 feet in 24 hours.

Tonight… The trough will move through this evening.  There is a slight chance for another round of spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Behind the trough tonight, clouds will clear, and temps will cool.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the high teens to high 20s.

Winds… Will decrease tonight below 10mph.

Saturday through Monday… Ridging will build back into the region and give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.

Temps… Saturday highs will be around 50 to the high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.  Sunday and Monday highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Winds… Peaks will be in the 10-20mph range each afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday… The ridge will move to our east and upper level southwest flow will increase. A couple of fast moving systems will miss us to the north. We’ll see a few more clouds, a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower, and gusty afternoon winds.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 25-30mph range, and the windy spots could see 35mph.

Euro 3-day precip for the Tuesday through Thursday period shows no measurable precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. The red arrows indicate the general storm track.
Euro 3-day precip for the Tuesday through Thursday period shows no measurable precip in the Pagosa area and up to 0.25” in our mountains. The northern part of the state will be favored. The red arrows indicate the general storm track.

We enjoyed doing a presentation for the San Juan National Forest fire crew. Thanks for inviting us!
We enjoyed doing a presentation for the San Juan National Forest fire crew. Thanks for inviting us!

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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