Slight chance for a shower today – Beautiful weather Sunday through Tuesday!…

We had a great visit with the Grand Junction NWS! Mark, sitting down, is explaining an amazing radar program. Standing behind Mark, is our Mark, then Arleen, and Tom. They were great hosts, and we learned a lot! – Pic taken 4/6/2023

We had a great visit with the Grand Junction NWS! Mark, sitting down, is explaining an amazing radar program. Standing behind Mark, is our Mark, then Arleen, and Tom. They were great hosts, and we learned a lot! – Pic taken 4/6/2023

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Saturday – 8 Apr 2023 – 11:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature in the last 24 hours was 48 and the low this morning was 29. Our low in the southern end of O’Neal Park was 23. There is still no wind data for the airfield. Our peak wind was 17mph multiple times yesterday afternoon.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5675 / 1989226 / 1929

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip has fallen recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Clouds will increase and a few spotty showers will develop this afternoon ahead of the weak trough. There isn’t much storm energy or moisture, but the timing, during the warmest part of the day, and the longer days of spring help add instability.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Clouds will increase and a few spotty showers will develop this afternoon ahead of the weak trough. There isn’t much storm energy or moisture, but the timing, during the warmest part of the day, and the longer days of spring help add instability.

There is nothing significant on radar this morning in our region.

Important highlights…

*** Warming temps will result in melting snow, increased run-off, higher streams, and water pooling in low areas. ***

Today… A weak trough with limited moisture will move through this afternoon. There is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 50s, and lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Winds… Gusts this afternoon will be in the 15-20mph range.

NAM forecast radar today from 10am to 8pm – The first few weak showers develop over the northwest part of the county around noon and then increase until 3-4pm, especially over the southeastern part of the county. I expect most of us to stay dry today.
NAM forecast radar today from 10am to 8pm – The first few weak showers develop over the northwest part of the county around noon and then increase until 3-4pm, especially over the southeastern part of the county. I expect most of us to stay dry today.
NWS precip focused on our area shows most of the county staying dry and parts of eastern Archuleta County and the high country getting less than 0.05” – that’s just enough to wet the ground for the lucky folks.
NWS precip focused on our area shows most of the county staying dry and parts of eastern Archuleta County and the high country getting less than 0.05” – that’s just enough to wet the ground for the lucky folks.

Sunday through Tuesday… A strong ridge will build over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and warmer temps. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above average.

*** Break out the shorts and t-shirts – It’s going to be really nice! ***

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s mid-30s. Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The warm spots on Tuesday will hit 70 degrees!

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be in the 10-15mph range.

Wednesday and Thursday… A system will try to develop off the southern CA coast and slowly move east. At this point it doesn’t look impressive for us. I just expect a few more clouds and a few scattered showers.

** In the weather forecasting world, we refer to spring and fall as “transition season”, and the forecast models really struggle with transition season. The system later in the week and possibly into the weekend is a good example.  Right now, I expect the pattern to get more active, but the details are very fuzzy. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon. **

Temps… High will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.  On Wednesday, the warm spots will hit 70 degrees.

Winds… Afternoon gust will be in the 20-25mph range.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip for the next 15 days – This is one of my favorite forecast products when looking beyond 4 or 5 days. It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. Forecast confidence increases the 50 versions show similar timing and amounts.  In the bottom chart I pay most attention to the mean.  Forecast confidence increases when the mean and the control line up pretty closely. First off, this model expects us to be dry until Wednesday night. System 1 is showing around 0.10” of precip but amounts in the top chart range from nothing to 0.50”. 13 of the 50 versions expect zero precip.  That’s quite a bit of uncertainty.  System 2 is Saturday into Sunday morning. The variance is even more widespread than the first system so forecast confidence is even lower. To finish the 15-day period, the ensemble expects the pattern to stay active, but there is no organized weather system. This could be just spotty afternoon showers, or the models have no clue.  This is typical of transition season.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip for the next 15 days – This is one of my favorite forecast products when looking beyond 4 or 5 days.

It’s read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. Forecast confidence increases when the 50 versions show similar timing and amounts.  In the bottom chart I pay most attention to the mean.  Forecast confidence increases when the mean and the control line up pretty closely.

First off, this model expects us to be dry until Wednesday night. System 1 is showing around 0.10” of precip but amounts in the top chart range from nothing to 0.50”. 13 of the 50 versions expect zero precip.  That’s quite a bit of uncertainty. 

System 2 is Saturday into Sunday morning. The variance is even more widespread than the first system so forecast confidence is even lower.

To finish the 15-day period, the ensemble expects the pattern to stay active, but there is no organized weather system. This could be just spotty afternoon showers, or the models have no clue.  This is typical of transition season.

Unless something unexpected pops up, my next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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