Beautiful weather through Tuesday!…

We enjoyed hiking at Colorado National Monument near Grand Junction – Pic taken 4/4/2023

We enjoyed hiking at Colorado National Monument near Grand Junction – Pic taken 4/4/2023

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Sunday – 9 Apr 2023 – 3:00pm

The past…

As of 3pm, at Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon has been 57 and the low this morning was 25. Our low in the southern end of O’Neal Park was 20. There is still no wind data for the airfield. Our peak wind so far this afternoon has been 2mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5774 / 1907232 / 1929

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip has fallen recently.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A batch of scattered is moving through this afternoon and then things are drying out in the northwest flow over the ridge.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A batch of scattered is moving through this afternoon and then things are drying out in the northwest flow over the ridge.

There is nothing significant on radar this afternoon in our region.

Important highlights…

*** Warming temps will result in melting snow, increased run-off, higher streams, and water pooling in low areas. ***

Rest of Today through Tuesday… A strong ridge will build over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and warmer temps. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above average.

*** Break out the shorts and t-shirts – It’s going to be really nice! ***

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. The warm spots on Tuesday will hit 70 degrees!

Winds… Peaks each afternoon will be in the 5-10mph range.

Wednesday through Saturday… A broad trough will develop over the western US and slowly move east. It doesn’t look impressive for us. I just expect a few more clouds and a few scattered showers. The best chance for showers is each afternoon, but they’ll be spotty. I think most us will hardly get anything.

** In the weather forecasting world, we refer to spring and fall as “transition season”, and the forecast models really struggle with transition season. The system later in the week and possibly into the weekend is a good example.  Right now, I expect the pattern to get more active, but the details are very fuzzy. I don’t see any big storms on the horizon. **

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.  The warm spots will hit 70 degrees. Thursday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the 20-25mph range. Winds Thursday afternoon will be slightly stronger with gusts in the 25-30mph range.

NBM precip to late Saturday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.30” in our mountains. A couple of notes: 1. Those are very low precip amounts for Wednesday through Saturday evening – a 4-day period. It’s spotty showers that will miss most of us. 2. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this weather pattern.  Some forecast models show a little more precip, but my expectations are low.
NBM precip to late Saturday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa and up to 0.30” in our mountains.
A couple of notes: 1. Those are very low precip amounts for Wednesday through Saturday evening – a 4-day period. It’s spotty showers that will miss most of us. 2. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this weather pattern.  Some forecast models show a little more precip, but my expectations are low.
NBM max wind gusts on Thursday at 3pm shows 31mph near Pagosa, 33mph near Chama, and up to 45mph for our mountains.
NBM max wind gusts on Thursday at 3pm shows 31mph near Pagosa, 33mph near Chama, and up to 45mph for our mountains.

I’m going fishing tomorrow! My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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