Heavy wet snow in the Turkey Springs area this morning – Pic taken 3/16/2023
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Thursday – 16 Mar 2023 – 10:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature in the last 24 hours was 38. The low since midnight last night was 33. Winds in the last 24 hours peaked at 7mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 49 | 65 / 1967 | 15 | -13 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported 13” of snow in the last 24 hours and 14” total for the storm. Precip started ramping up in the valley yesterday after noon and fell steadily all afternoon. Snow levels were lower than I expected, but temps in the mid-30s hindered accumulation.
Forecast discussion…
Rest of today… The final surge of moisture with this system will move through this evening. Showers will increase this afternoon and persist into the late evening.
Specifics…
Temps will be slightly cooler and snow levels will be a little lower so snow will have a better chance of accumulating. However, the snow will continue to be wet and heavy. Showers will increase this afternoon and persist into the late evening. A stray thunderstorm or two is also possible. Most of the precip will be done by midnight, but a few scattered showers are possible into the early morning hours, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Today highs will be in the high 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Peaks winds will be in the 10-15mph range.
Snow levels… During the day today, snow levels will bounce around the 7,000ft to 7,500ft range. Tonight, as moisture decreases and showers become more hit and miss, snow levels will drop below 6,000ft.
My precip forecast…
Valley below 7,600ft: 0.10” to 0.25” of liquid equivalent and 1-2” of snow
Valley above 7,600ft: 0.15” to 0.45” of liquid equivalent and 2-4” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-18” of snow
*** Snow-melt in the valley and recent rain that fell on top of the snow is causing flooding in some areas. Area streams in the valley are rising. Example: The Piedra was flowing around 100cfs early Saturday morning and hit 613cfs this morning. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan mountains above 10,000ft – this includes Wolf Creek Pass. Expect an additional 10-20” valid until midnight tonight. ***
*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an AVALANCHE WARNING for our mountains valid until 7am tomorrow morning. Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger and will also occur naturally. ***
Friday and Saturday… The pattern will remain unsettled but disorganized. There will be less moisture to work with and limited storm energy, but we’ll continue to see hit and miss showers, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.
Precip forecast…
Valley: 0-1” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5” of snow
Sunday through Monday evening… Very similar to Friday and Saturday – The pattern will remain unsettled but disorganized. There will be limited moisture to work with and limited storm energy, but we’ll continue to see hit and miss showers, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.
Precip forecast…
Valley: 0-1” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-5” of snow
Monday night through Thursday morning… The next system will move through. The track, moisture, and storm energy are lining up for another round of precip. Same challenge as the previous two systems: amount of warm air and snow levels.
I’ll dig into the details in tomorrow’s post.
The forecast models vary from 1.5” to 2.5” in the valley and from 2.5” to 3.5” in the mountains. That’s quite a bit of precip! As of this morning, this system should be a little cooler resulting in more snow for the valley. However, temps will still be above freezing so it will be heavy wet snow.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
