The blue birds are back! – Pic taken 3/14/2023
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Wednesday – 15 Mar 2023 – 12:15pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature so far today has been 38. The low since midnight last night was 33. Winds yesterday afternoon peaked at 9mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 48 | 62 / 1995 | 15 | -10 / 1912 |
Precipitation summary… A little bit of precip fell overnight. Wolf Creek reported 1” of snow this morning. Up to 0.30” of snow was reported in the valley.
Forecast discussion…
Rest of today through Thursday night… The next push of an “atmospheric river” is on our doorstep. Moisture will increase quickly over the next few hours and stick with us through tomorrow. The amount of warm air and snow levels are going to be challenging again.
Temps… Today highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Thursday highs will be in the high 30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Peaks winds will be in the 15-20mph range.
Snow levels… Will bounce around the 8,000ft to 8,500ft range until around midnight tonight. Then snow levels will gradually lower to around 7,000ft by tomorrow morning. During the day Thursday, snow levels will bounce around the 7,000ft to 7,500ft range. Tomorrow night, as moisture decreases and showers become more hit and miss, snow levels will drop below 6,000ft.
Timing… Precip will ramp up this afternoon and fall moderately to heavily at times into Thursday morning. Scattered snowshowers will persist into Thursday night, especially over the mountains.
Precip amounts…
Valley below 7,600ft: 0.60” to 1.10” of liquid equivalent and 1-4” of snow
Valley above 7,600-8,400ft: 0.75” to 1.20” of liquid equivalent and 3-7” of snow
Valley above 8,400ft: 0.80” to 1.30” of liquid equivalent and 5-10” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 20-30” of snow
*** In the valley we’ll get a sloppy mix of rain and heavy wet snow. Precip will transition to rain/snow during the day today, and then switch back to snow late this evening. Roads in the valley could be slick tonight and Thursday morning. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan mountains above 10,000ft – this includes Wolf Creek Pass. It’s for 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts and winds to 50mph valid midnight tomorrow. ***
There is also a warning for the southwest San Juan mountains, but it does not specify an elevation. The warning area includes many of us in the Pagosa area above 7,500ft. However, I do not expect most of us to get the snow amounts indicated in that warning due to warm air and snow levels 8,000-8,500ft.
** Snowfall for Pagosa Springs on the various models this morning varies from around 1” to 13”. That’s a considerable difference, especially for a storm that’s within the next 48 hours. Snow amounts will hinge on the amount of warm air and snow levels. I’m confident we’ll see around 1” of liquid equivalent precip in the valley. I’m not so confident about snow levels and snow amounts. **
Friday and Saturday… The pattern will remain unsettled but disorganized. There will be less moisture to work with and limited storm energy, but we’ll continue to see hit and miss showers, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.
Precip forecast…
Valley: 0-2” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6” of snow
Sunday and Monday… Very similar to Friday and Saturday – The pattern will remain unsettled but disorganized. There will be less moisture to work with and limited storm energy, but we’ll continue to see hit and miss showers, especially over the mountains.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Winds… Afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.
Precip forecast…
Valley: 0-2” of snow
Mountains above 9,000ft: 4-8” of snow
Tuesday through Thursday morning… The next system will move through. The track, moisture, and storm energy are lining up for another round of precip. Same challenge as the previous two systems: amount of warm air and snow levels.
This storm is a week out, so there is still considerable uncertainty. I’ll do a rough first guess on precip amounts in Friday’s post. Right now, it looks pretty similar to the system moving through today and tomorrow.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
