Snowpack is in good shape for the West Slope!
Thursday – 2 Mar 2023 – 6:00pm
February Summary…
The average low for February is 9 and the average high is 42. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 February 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 February 1916. Precip averages 2.02″ in February with 23.1″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.3″ of liquid equivalent and 68.7″ of snow.
How did we do?





Why such a variance? It’s mostly due to elevation. The three locations that have over 40″ are at or above 8,000ft.

*A couple of notes about this graphic: 1. There are inconsistencies in our historical data. 2. The location of our historical data moved around the Pagosa Springs area. Because of our terrain, just moving a mile or two in any direction results in significant differences. 3. I’m using an average from individual monthly CoCoRaHS totals that include 60-70% of the daily reports. This is not precise but gives us a good idea where we stand.*

Snowpack and Drought…


As we get into the second half of the season, I start paying more attention to that last column. If no more snow fell – boooo hissss! – the Upper San Juan would finish at 104% of its season average and the Wolf Creek Summit would finish at 92%.
The third column from the right is the “median peak date”. Snowpack tends to peak 9 Apr for the Upper San Juan and 29 Apr for Wolf Creek summit. We’ve got plenty of time to keep adding to our snowpack!

In spite of well above average snow for CA, NV, and UT, drought conditions persist.
March outlook…
The average low for March is 15 and the average high is 49. The record high of 73 occurred on 19 March 1907. The record low of -25 occurred on 1 March 1913. Precip averages 1.77″ in March with 19.5″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.9″ of liquid equivalent and 75.8″ of snow.

The precip outlook on the right indicates “leaning above” average precip.

And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert and this is what she expects…
March came in like a lion and we’re not sure it will leave like a lamb. We are still under the influence of the enhanced MJO sector which should influence systems impacting us the second week of March. The waters in the equatorial areas have warmed and the ENSO is now neutral. The polar front jet and associated lows and frontal systems should be progressing in the northern hemisphere on a regular basis – every 4 days to 10 days. At the same time we still have the potential for a Arctic Atmosphere stratosphere warming event resulting in a cold air outbreak and temperatures below average with deeper lows. On the other hand, the earth is tipping back towards the sun, our days are longer, and our temperatures are warming. Snow will be melting faster and we’ll start to see more rain/mixed precip in the lower elevations. For March we’ll see just above average precipitation and cooler temperatures than average.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!
- Shawn
2 Responses
This is an awesome and richly informative report. Thanks for all the work you guys do!!!
It is nice to see at least relatively good precipitation news but either way it is great to have the info.
Thanks Jim!