A little snow late Sunday night & Monday…

Our scare crow is happy to see the sun! – Pic taken 2/4/2023

Our scare crow is happy to see the sun! – Pic taken 2/4/2023

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Saturday – 4 Feb 2023 – 2:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 43. The low this morning was 10. The peak wind at the airfield was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4057 / 19513-29 / 1915

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is very little moisture in our area but we’ll start seeing high cirrus clouds. That low off the CA coast is off our next system. Unfortunately it will weaken and won’t have much moisture when it moves through on Monday.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is very little moisture in our area but we’ll start seeing high cirrus clouds. That low off the CA coast is off our next system. Unfortunately it will weaken and won’t have much moisture when it moves through on Monday.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Today and tomorrow… Ridging is control today and will give us lots of sun and dry weather. The ridge will move east of us tomorrow and we’ll see more mid and upper level clouds. Winds will also kick up a notch tomorrow afternoon.

Highs will range from the low to high 40s and lows will range from the mid-single digits to near 20.

Winds this afternoon will peak around 10mph out of the southwest. Winds Sunday afternoon will peak around 15mph out of the southwest.

Sunday night through Monday… The next low pressure system will move through. It will track west to east – a decent track for us.  However, it will be weakening and won’t have much moisture. My expectations for snow are low.

Highs on Monday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be mid-single digits to high teens.

Winds Sunday night to Monday afternoon will gust into the 15-20mph range out of the southwest.

My snow forecast…

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains: 3-6”

NWS forecast snowfall shows a trace to 1” in town and 4-6” in our mountains.
NWS forecast snowfall shows a trace to 1” in town and 4-6” in our mountains.

Tuesday through Sunday… I expect the rest of the week to be dry in the valley with a slight chance for spotty snowshowers over the mountains Wednesday night and Thursday. I’d be surprised if an inch falls in the mountains.

Highs will range from the mid-30s to mid-40s, and lows will range from the mid-single digits to high teens.

Winds will peak in the 10-15mph range each afternoon, except for Thursday which will peak in the 15-20mph range.

Long range outlook… The long range models expect the pattern to get more active starting around the 13th.

Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Pagosa Springs expects 1.7” of snow Monday – I think it’s a little too much - and then dry most of next week, and finally finishes with 8” 13-19 Feb.
Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Pagosa Springs expects 1.7” of snow Monday – I think it’s a little too much – and then dry most of next week, and finally finishes with 8” 13-19 Feb.
A HUGE thanks to Mrs Hinger and her 8th grade science classes for inviting us!
A HUGE thanks to Mrs Hinger and her 8th grade science classes for inviting us!

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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