Dry through most of the weekend – next system late Sunday night & Monday…

We got to hang out with future scientists at Pagosa Peak Open School! – Pic taken 2/1/2023

We got to hang out with future scientists at Pagosa Peak Open School! – Pic taken 2/1/2023

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Thursday – 2 Feb 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 39. The low this morning was 4. The peak wind at the airfield was 4mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4053 / 19353-37 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is very little moisture across much of the Four Corners region. The ridge will keep us dry through most of Sunday.  The system off the coast will fall apart as it bumps into the ridge.  Another system will form behind it and will move through our area on Monday.  Unfortunately that system won’t have much moisture.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is very little moisture across much of the Four Corners region. The ridge will keep us dry through most of Sunday.  The system off the coast will fall apart as it bumps into the ridge.  Another system will form behind it and will move through our area on Monday.  Unfortunately that system won’t have much moisture.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Today through Sunday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and dry weather. We’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps near average.

Highs will range from the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will range from 0 to 20.

Winds Friday and Saturday afternoons will peak around 10mph out of the southwest. Winds Sunday afternoon will peak around 15mph out of the southwest.

Sunday night through Monday… The next low pressure system will move through. It will track west to east – a decent track for us.  However, it will be weaking and won’t have much moisture. My expectations for snow are low.

Highs on Monday will be in the low to high 30s and lows will be high single digits to high teens.

Winds Sunday night to Monday afternoon will gust into the 15-20mph range out of the southwest.

My snow forecast…

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains: 3-6”

NBM forecast snowfall to Tuesday at 5am shows 0.7” in town and 4-5” in our mountains.
NBM forecast snowfall to Tuesday at 5am shows 0.7” in town and 4-5” in our mountains.

Middle of next week… I’m struggling to figure this period out.  Some forecast models indicate a “one and done” pattern while others indicate multiple weak systems moving through.

Long range outlook… The long range models expect the pattern to get more active starting around the 12th/13th.

The Climate Prediction Center 8-16 day precip outlook for 10-16 Feb expects above average precip for us and much of the country.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-16 day precip outlook for 10-16 Feb expects above average precip for us and much of the country.
Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Pagosa Springs expects an inch of snow Monday, and then dry most of next week, and finally finishes with 9” 12-17 Feb.
Euro ensemble 15-day snowfall for Pagosa Springs expects an inch of snow Monday, and then dry most of next week, and finally finishes with 9” 12-17 Feb.
HUGE thanks to Pagosa Peak Open School kindergartners for inviting us!  We loved the weather song!
HUGE thanks to Pagosa Peak Open School kindergartners for inviting us! We loved the weather song!

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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