Climbing high above the West Fork valley on Wolf Creek Pass – Pic taken 1/27/2023
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Friday – 27 Jan 2023 – 5:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 28. The low this morning was -5. Most of us had lows in the -5 to -15 range but the cold spots dipped to around -20. The peak wind at the airfield this afternoon was 6mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 53 / 1982 | 4 | -26 / 1917 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable snow in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Radar is boring in our area this afternoon.
Saturday and Sunday… We’ll see more clouds as upper level west and then southwest flow gradually push more moisture into the region. A weak trough will move through tomorrow afternoon, but it won’t have much moisture.
Saturday an inch of snow is possible in the mountains and two or three snowflakes are possible in the valley.
Late Sunday night snow will start increasing over the mountains. I expect Wolf Creek to report 1-3” of new snow on their Monday morning report.
Monday and Tuesday… A low pressure system will move through. I don’t like the track. The low will be to our south, so we’ll just catch the northern edge. If it tracks farther south than expected, it will be a dud.
Snow will fall on and off from early Monday morning to noon on Tuesday.
My snowfall forecast…
Valley: 1-4”
Mountains: 8-14”
On these charts I look at the direction of flow and the colors. The colors indicate the strength of positive vorticity/upward vertical motion.
First, a trough moves through tomorrow afternoon. This is the trough on the satellite analysis above across eastern OR and central Idaho. See much moisture associated it on the satellite analysis? Nope and it won’t pick up much additional moisture on its way here either. So the first trough will kick up a few spotty snowshowers but it won’t amount to much.
Second, by Monday afternoon a well formed low is off the southern CA coast. By Monday evening we’ll have southwest flow aloft and positive vorticity/upward vertical motion. That’s what I want to see, but the best moisture and energy will stay closer to the low and remain to our south. Plus we end up in split flow which is not conducive for precip.
Summary: I am not getting a warm fuzzy for this pattern.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will be on Sunday.
– Shawn
