Dry through Sunday – Snow Monday and Tuesday…

HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain Rivers Adventures and the Blue Sky Fishing Guides for hosting a group of combat veterans on the San Juan River! – Pics taken 1/24/2023

HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain Rivers Adventures and the Blue Sky Fishing Guides for hosting a group of combat veterans on the San Juan River! – Pics taken 1/24/2023

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Wednesday – 25 Jan 2023 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 27. The low was -4. Most of us had lows in the -5 to -10 range but the cold spots dipped in the minus teens. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3855 / 19542-29 / 1938

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable snow in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The upper level pattern is disorganized with northerly flow and a decent amount of moisture. This pattern favors the northern mountains of Colorado.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The upper level pattern is disorganized with northerly flow and a decent amount of moisture. This pattern favors the northern mountains of Colorado.
Radar this morning – Light snow is falling across parts of eastern Colorado.  Light snow is also falling over parts of the northern mountains but radar isn’t picking it up. With northerly flow, snow in our area will stay on the other side of The Divide.
Radar this morning – Light snow is falling across parts of eastern Colorado.  Light snow is also falling over parts of the northern mountains but radar isn’t picking it up. With northerly flow, snow in our area will stay on the other side of The Divide.

Rest of today… A weak disturbance will move through the upper level northerly flow and could kick up a few mountain snowflakes – mostly on the other side of The Divide. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.

The NWS snowfall forecast shows a trace of snow over the eastern part of Archuleta County.  The Cumbres Pass area could get an inch. Note that the 2-3” snow bullseyes are north of us on the other side of The Divide. This is typical with upper level northwest and north flow.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows a trace of snow over the eastern part of Archuleta County.  The Cumbres Pass area could get an inch. Note that the 2-3” snow bullseyes are north of us on the other side of The Divide. This is typical with upper level northwest and north flow.

Thursday and Friday… Ridging and drier air will give us lots of sun. Temps will remain slightly below average.

Saturday and Sunday… We’ll see more clouds as upper level west and then southwest flow gradually push more moisture into the region.

The mountains could see a few snowflakes but they’ll be lucky to get an inch of new snow. Snow will start increasing over the mountains late Sunday night.  I expect Wolf Creek to report 1-3” of new snow on their Monday morning report.

Monday and Tuesday… A low pressure system will move through. There are forecast model inconsistencies with its route but here are my initial thoughts…

Snow will gradually increase through the day on Monday, fall heaviest Monday night, and then gradually taper off on Tuesday.

My initial snowfall forecast…

Valley: 3-6”

Mountains: 10-18”

NBM snowfall to Tuesday at 11pm shows 5.3” for Pagosa and 10-18” in our mountains. Right now this looks like a good forecast to me.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday at 11pm shows 5.3” for Pagosa and 10-18” in our mountains. Right now this looks like a good forecast to me.
Note the snow bullseye in the Steamboat area. They often do quite well in a moist northwest to north upper level flow pattern.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain Rivers Adventures and the Blue Sky Fishing Guides for hosting a group of combat veterans on the San Juan River! Please check out these links to support these fine folks.
HUGE thanks to Warriors Mountain Rivers Adventures and the Blue Sky Fishing Guides for hosting a group of combat veterans on the San Juan River! Please check out these links to support these fine folks.

Warriors Mountain Rivers Adventures and Facebook

Blue Sky Fly Fishing and Facebook

My next post will be Friday afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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