1-2 hours of “fun” early tomorrow morning…

1-2 hours of “fun” early tomorrow morning…

Be careful tomorrow morning! – Pic taken last winter

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Tuesday – 10 Jan 2023 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 42. The low this morning was 25 and it occurred at 2:15am. The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3762 / 19442-22 / 1964

Precip summary… Most of us got a dusting of snow this morning.  Wolf Creek reported zero new snow but based on web cams, they got a dusting too.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We are in the lull between the weak trough that moved through this morning and the stronger system to our west that will move through tomorrow morning.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – We are in the lull between the weak trough that moved through this morning and the stronger system to our west that will move through tomorrow morning.
Radar this afternoon – The band of heavier precip is finally pushing east along the southern I-15 corridor. That band will move through our area during the early morning hours.
Radar this afternoon – The band of heavier precip is finally pushing east along the southern I-15 corridor. That band will move through our area during the early morning hours.

Tonight to Wednesday afternoon… The next system will move quickly through the county early tomorrow morning.  The shorter duration of this storm, just 1-3 hours, means we will get less snow.  The bulk of the snow will be done by 8-9am in the valley but hit and miss snowshowers could linger until noon.  In the mountains, scattered snowshowers will linger into the afternoon.

Between 2am for the far western part of the county to 7am for the far eastern part of the county, I expect a 1-2 hour burst of heavy snow, winds gusting 30-35mph, and possible thundersnow as the cold front moves west to east across the county. Expect a brief period of white-out conditions and hazardous travel.

Snow amounts…

– Valley: 1-3”

– Mountains: 8-12”

*** Travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly tonight. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Southwest San Juan Mountains valid 6pm Tuesday to 6pm Wednesday for 8-12” of snow winds gusting to 45mph. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.

NBM forecast radar from 10pm Tonight to 10am Wednesday – Snowshowers start over the mountains 11pm-midnight and then move quickly through the county from 2am – far western part of county – to 7am – far eastern part of the county.
NBM forecast radar from 10pm Tonight to 10am Wednesday – Snowshowers start over the mountains 11pm-midnight and then move quickly through the county from 2am – far western part of county – to 7am – far eastern part of the county.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 12" in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 1-2” for Pagosa and up to 12″ in our mountains.

Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon… We’ll see the next round of ridging, dry weather, and above average temps. Temps could be 10 degrees above average on Friday.

Saturday night to Sunday night… The next system will move through, and things are lining up for decent snow.

First guess snow amounts…

Valley: 4-8”

Mountains: 8-12”

Euro 24-hour snowfall from 5pm Saturday to 5pm Sunday shows 6.3” for Pagosa Springs and up to 12” in our mountains.  This is pretty consistent with other forecast models, and I think it’s a good call as this time.
Euro 24-hour snowfall from 5pm Saturday to 5pm Sunday shows 6.3” for Pagosa Springs and up to 12” in our mountains.  This is pretty consistent with other forecast models, and I think it’s a good call as this time.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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