Snow is on the way!…

Happy New Year! – Pic taken 1/1/2023

Happy New Year! – Pic taken 1/1/2023

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Sunday – 1 Jan 2023 – 10:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 34. The low this morning was 32. The peak wind at the airfield was 5mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3459 / 19810-20 / 1991

Precip summary… Light snow fell on and off most of yesterday. Folks over 8,000ft reported 1-2”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 2”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from zero to 2”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS snow reports from 28 Dec to 1 Jan range from 3.1” to 16.5”. Hey Hillary, share some of that snow with the rest of us!
CoCoRaHS snow reports from 28 Dec to 1 Jan range from 3.1” to 16.5”. Hey Hillary, share some of that snow with the rest of us!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The atmospheric fire hose is pushing a lot of moisture into the region. The low is about to track east across southern NV and is expected to move just north of us tomorrow afternoon.  This is a good track for us!
Water vapor satellite this morning – The atmospheric fire hose is pushing a lot of moisture into the region. The low is about to track east across southern NV and is expected to move just north of us tomorrow afternoon.  This is a good track for us!
Radar this morning – Most of the precip is still to our west. Precip will ramp up in our area this afternoon.
Radar this morning – Most of the precip is still to our west. Precip will ramp up in our area this afternoon.
Brought-to-you-by-the-Springs-Resort-1
Thank you!

Today through tomorrow afternoon… A long “river” of Pacific moisture will funnel up against our mountains and bring a good round of precip.  Unfortunately it will also bring some slightly warmer air. Snow levels will be around 7,600ft until early evening and then drop pretty quickly.

Precip will ramp up during the afternoon and fall on and off through tomorrow afternoon.  Occasional heavy bands of snow will cause near white-out conditions.

Snowfall forecast…

Valley below 7,600ft: 5-10” – most of this will fall tonight and tomorrow morning

Valley above 7,600ft: 8-14” – heavy wet snow this afternoon followed by powder tonight

Mountains: 20-30”

*** Travel conditions above 8,000ft will deteriorate this afternoon. Travel conditions will worsen across much of the region through this evening. Keep a close eye on CDOT for travel conditions. ***

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to 2ft of snow and winds gusting to 45mph valid until Monday at 5pm.  This includes Wolf Creek Pass. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the San Juan River basin which includes Pagosa Springs. Expect 3-6” of snow with locally higher amounts. It’s valid 6pm today to noon on Monday. ***

*** An AVALANCHE WARNING has been issued for the San Juan Mountains valid until Monday at 11pm. Large and dangerous avalanches are likely. ***

*** Heavy wet snow could cause power outages and break tree limbs. ***

HRRR forecast radar from 10am this morning to 11pm tomorrow night – This is high resolution data that is updated every hour.  It’s also pretty stingy with precip in our area so it’s encouraging when it shows a decent amount.  Precip ramps up across much of the county after noon. Green is rain and blue is snow. Initially rain falls pretty high up the valley and then the snow level drops through the evening. We could get a break the second half of the night as showers hug the mountains. Then snowshowers are hit and miss sunrise to sunset tomorrow.
HRRR forecast radar from 10am this morning to 11pm tomorrow night – This is high resolution data that is updated every hour.  It’s also pretty stingy with precip in our area so it’s encouraging when it shows a decent amount. 
Precip ramps up across much of the county after noon. Green is rain and blue is snow. Initially rain falls pretty high up the valley and then the snow level drops through the evening. We could get a break the second half of the night as showers hug the mountains. Then snowshowers are hit and miss sunrise to sunset tomorrow.
The NWS snowfall forecast through 5am Tuesday expects 8-12” for Pagosa Springs.
The NWS snowfall forecast through 5am Tuesday expects 8-12” for Pagosa Springs.

Monday evening through Tuesday evening… We’ll see a slow clearing trend as the system moves east.  Scattered snowshowers will linger, especially over the mountains.

Snowfall forecast…

Valley: 1-3” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

Wednesday through most of Thursday… A ridge will move through. We’ll see more sun and there’s just a slight chance for spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. The lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch.

Have your cameras ready Wednesday morning. Our Pagosa Country winter wonderland could be on full display!

Thursday night through Friday… The next system will move through.  It won’t have much moisture, so my expectations are low.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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