Storm #2 will be yet another warm one…

Ski

A busy day at the mountain! Photo courtesy of Wolf Creek Ski area.

Friday – 30 Dec. 2022 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 28 and the low this morning was 12 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 69%. Winds at the airfield hit 18 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…Some light snow moved in overnight. I measured 0.30 at our place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake but some of you in town and to the south measured over an inch. Chromo measured two inches.

Screenshot 2022 12 30 090912
Snow totals overnight ranged from 0.30 to 2 inches.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3760/ 19803-27 / 1911
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n 1
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this upcoming storm!
Watches
Winter Storm Watch for Wolf Creek Pass from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Winter storm Warning for our surrounding mountains above 9000 feet. Pagosa Springs is not included as of this post time.

Winter Storm Warning for Elevations above 9000 feet-Does not include Pagosa Springs

Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 754 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST MONDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts up to 3 feet possible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Monday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. A detailed map of the snowfall can be found at: www.weather.gov/gjt/winter.

Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass:

Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 354 AM MST Fri Dec 30 2022 …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON… * WHAT…Periods of moderate to heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches possible, with locally higher amounts up to 2 feet across the Eastern San Juan Mountains. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE…La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon, with the heaviest snow Sunday and Sunday night. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult at times. Periods of snow and blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

The rest of today through Saturday… Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow, mainly this morning. There will be another chance for snow tonight and on Saturday. Temperatures today and Saturday will struggle to reach the low 30’s.

Saturday night-Monday: Another trough that becomes a closed low pressure and more SW flow will give us a good chance for snow from Sunday through Monday. The tricky part of the forecast is Sunday, when warm air moves in ahead of the trough and associated cold front. Snow levels will be wobbling around 7500 feet and temps could reach the low 40’s during the day. It is very possible that those of you living below 7500 feet could see mainly a snow mix and cold rain on Sunday until the trough and cold front move through after sunset. By Sunday night the snow levels drop to under 7000 feet, so everyone should see snow Sunday night and Monday.

Tuesday-rest of next week: Continued unsettled with chances for snow throughout next week

Here is my latest snowfall forecast from today through Saturday.

– Valley: 1-2 inches of snow

– Mountains: 2-4”

Here is my snowfall forecast from Saturday night through Tuesday morning.

-Valley: 7500 feet and below: 5-10 inches of snow with 0.10 to 0.20 inches of rain on Sunday.

– Valley: Above 7500 feet. 7-12 inches of snow.

– Mountains: 12-24”

Screenshot 2022 12 30 091757
By Sunday, the trough will be to our west, pumping in lots of moisture from the SW.
StormTotalSnow 5
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Monday morning.
Screenshot 2022 12 30 082326
The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 10 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 8 inches for Chama, NM and 21 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from tonight through Monday morning.
NBM 6 2
The latest NBM model predicts 9.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 11 inches of snow for Chama, NM. through Tuesday morning.
EURO 7
The latest Euro model is predicting 12.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 13.3 inches for Chama, NM through Monday afternoon.
GFS 10
The latest GFS model is predicting 10.8 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 13.5 inches for Chama, NM. through noon on Tuesday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 30 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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