Standing lenticular clouds at sunrise – Pic taken 12/24/2022
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Saturday – 24 Dec 2022 – 10:25am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 40. The low this morning was 15. The cold spots dipped to around 10. The peak wind at the airfield was 5mph.
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
38 | 56 / 1943 | 3 | -34 / 1990 |
Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.
Forecast discussion…

There is nothing on radar this morning in our area.
Today through Tuesday afternoon… Ridging will build along the West Coast and put us under a dry northwest flow pattern. Systems will stay north of us, and we’ll see occasional patches of clouds. Clouds will increase Tuesday ahead of the next system.
Temps will be 5-10 degree above average.
Tuesday evening to Thursday afternoon… A fairly strong, slow moving system, with plenty of moisture will move through. Unfortunately the system will start on the warm side.
Here’s my first guess on snow levels. They’re going to be challenging!
Tuesday evening: ~8,000ft
Tuesday night to Wednesday afternoon: 7,000-7,600ft
Wednesday evening: below 7,000ft and dropping through the night
*** Roads, especially above 8,000ft, will start getting slick Tuesday night. Expect the worst driving conditions Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as colder air and steady snow overtake most of the county. ***
First guess snow totals…
– Valley below 7,600ft: 3-5” – most of it will fall Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon
– Valley above 7,600ft: 5-10”
– Mountains: 14-20”


30 Dec through 4 Jan… The pattern will stay active with more chances for snow. It’s still too far out to nail down details.

The top chart shows 24-hour snowfall amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro model. Consistency between the 50 versions boosts our forecast confidence.
The bottom chart shows the amount variance, the control, and the mean of the 50 versions. I pay most attention to the mean. Forecast confidence increases when the control and the mean line up fairly closely.
First glance tells me that we’ve got a shot at snow every day starting Tuesday evening and there is potential for 3 storms. Confidence drops as we get to storm #3 because there is more variance. And for storm #1 confidence is still shaky on amounts because the control has 4” while the mean is around 8”. This is because the warmer air will impact snow amounts. We also compare this to other forecast models and many other products. Right now, this model expects the most snow and I’m leery that we’ll get this much.

On top, the Euro mean is around 30”. In the middle, the GFS mean is around 25”. And on the bottom, the Canadian mean is around 18”. The trend is very similar for all three forecast models – good, but the amounts vary quite a bit – not so good. As of today, I could see 15-20” in the valley and at least 3 FEET in the mountains between late 27 Dec and 4 Jan!
My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Mark will take over tomorrow. Let’s hope the weather keeps him busy!
– Shawn