Dry until the 28th…

Beautiful sunset colors on the Eagle Peaks – Pic taken 12/21/2022

Beautiful sunset colors on the Eagle Peaks – Pic taken 12/21/2022

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Thursday – 22 Dec 2022 – 12:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 38. The low this morning was 15. The cold spots dipped into the mid single digits. The peak wind at the airfield was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3857 / 19064-30 / 1989

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep those troughs from impacting us until the 28th. In the meantime we’ll see occasional patches of clouds.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The ridge, jagged blue line, will keep those troughs from impacting us until the 28th.  In the meantime we’ll see occasional patches of clouds.

There is nothing on radar this morning in our area.

Today through the 27th… Tomorrow we’ll see a few more clouds as a weak, fast-moving trough with little moisture tries to move through.

Ridging will build along the West Coast and put us under a dry northwest flow pattern. Systems will stay north of us and we’ll see occasional patches of clouds.

Starting Saturday, temps will be 5-10 degree above average.

NBM forecast high temps today – I drew the black line between the 20s and 30s. Southwest Colorado will be the warmest part of the state! This is a classic example of “cold air damming”. Our mountains prevent the shallow, dense, cold air from moving into our area.
NBM forecast high temps today – I drew the black line between the 20s and 30s. Southwest Colorado will be the warmest part of the state!  This is a classic example of “cold air damming”.  Our mountains prevent the shallow, dense, cold air from moving into our area.
Weather Underground temps today 11:10am – Walsenburg is at 0 while Alamosa is in the mid-30s. I drew arrows to highlight the drastic differences on each side of the mountains.
Weather Underground temps today 11:10am – Walsenburg is at 0 while Alamosa is in the mid-30s. I drew arrows to highlight the drastic differences on each side of the mountains.

Starting the 28th… The weather pattern will get more active – YAY! We could see two systems between the 28th and 4th.  Ensemble forecast models are showing 12-18” for Pagosa Springs during this period. It’s too early to buy into these totals but it does look promising.

Euro ensemble snow to late on 3 Jan shows 18.10” of snow for Pagosa Springs.
Euro ensemble snow to late on 3 Jan shows 18.10” of snow for Pagosa Springs.
Euro ensemble snow graph for Pagosa Springs – The blue box in the top center indicates total snow. It expects 21” between 28 Dec and 6 Jan. Details that far out are definitely sketchy, but right now I see two waves of snow: 28-30 Dec and 1-2 Jan. I’m skeptical of the last three days (4-6 Jan) on the graph.
Euro ensemble snow graph for Pagosa Springs – The blue box in the top center indicates total snow. It expects 21” between 28 Dec and 6 Jan. Details that far out are definitely sketchy, but right now I see two waves of snow: 28-30 Dec and 1-2 Jan. I’m skeptical of the last three days (4-6 Jan) on the graph.
The CPC 8-16 day precip outlook expects above average precip for most of the country, including us. This lines up well with what I see in the long range forecast models.
The CPC 8-16 day precip outlook expects above average precip for most of the country, including us. This lines up well with what I see in the long range forecast models.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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