Maybe a few snowflakes Wednesday night …

Pagosa Springs is filled with holiday cheer for the Old Fashioned Christmas Celebration – Pic taken 12/17/2022 by Arleen

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Sunday – 18 Dec 2022 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 28. The low this morning was 4. The cold spots dipped to -5. The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
39	65 / 1906	4	-26 / 1908

Precip summary… There has been no recent precipitation.

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite this morning – The main jet stream is to our north. The low over AZ will track to the east. We’ll see more clouds today but the precip will stay our south.*

*Radar this morning – That’s mostly light precip over southern AZ and southwest NM and it’s moving east with the low.*

Today through Tuesday… A system will slide to our south today and we’ll see more clouds but stay dry. Clouds will clear out tomorrow and then move back in Tuesday ahead of the next system.

Wednesday… A weak system with little moisture will move through Wednesday night. The northwest to southeast track means we’ll get a few scraps while northern CO is favored. We could get a dusting of snow in the valley and our mountains could get up to an inch.

*NBM snow forecast to Thursday at 11am – It shows 0.20” for Pagosa and up to an inch in our mountains. This system will track northwest to southeast which favors the northern mountains.*

Thursday through ?… Ridging will build off the West Coast and put us under a prolonged northwest flow pattern. Systems will stay north of us. Northern CO will continue to be favored while we could get a few scraps.

*Euro ensemble snow to 31 Dec at 11pm – The yellow arrows indicate the storm track. The latest round of forecast models is hinting at a change the last few days of the month.*

Euro 15-day ensemble snow for Pagosa – There is just a trace of new snow until the 28th and then we finish with 5” by 2 Jan. I’d really like to see a surprise storm. — Euro 15-day ensemble snow for Pagosa – The blue box, top center, indicates total snow. There is just a trace of new snow until the 28^th and then we finish with 5” by 2 Jan. I’d really like to see a surprise storm.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.***
*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

Announcements…

It was an honor to do a weather presentation for the Wolf Creek Ski Patrol on Thursday! We respect the heck out of you guys and it’s comforting to know that you’re taking care of everyone up there!

Pagosa Weather web page update… A HUGE thanks to Do and Hannah, our web experts, for getting our web page up and running!

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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One Response

Arleen says:

December 18, 2022 at 10:32 am

It’s so good to have the web page back. Thank you, Do & Hannah! It is now better & more secure than before though it should be oblivious to everyone. Thank you for your patience during this transition.

Now it’s time for us to make some snow! ❄❄❄

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