Gradual clearing and COLD …

The pups loved playing in the snow yesterday! – Pic taken 12/12/2022

The pups loved playing in the snow yesterday! – Pic taken 12/12/2022

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Tuesday – 13 Dec 2022 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 36. The low this morning was 0. The Hatcher Lake area dropped to -12 and the upper Piedra hit -18. The peak wind at the airfield was 29mph. The cold front moved through around 5pm and then temps dropped overnight.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3954 / 19295-28 / 1961

Precip summary… A few bands of heavy snow moved through yesterday afternoon. Most snow reports were in the 2-4” range. Wolf Creek ended up with 12” of very light powder.

*** The avalanche rating is “considerable”. Large and dangerous avalanches can easily be triggered.  For more information go to the CAIC web page or download their app. https://avalanche.state.co.us/ ***

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.8” to 4.6”. The snow lottery winner was Arleen in O’Neal Park.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.8” to 4.6”. The snow lottery winner was Arleen in O’Neal Park.
Folks brave enough to face the bitter cold are in for a treat today up at Wolf Creek!
Folks brave enough to face the bitter cold are in for a treat today up at Wolf Creek!
Snowpack for the western US is looking pretty good! Our nearby basins are back up to 100%. As of today, the Upper San Juan snotel is at 103% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 105%.
Snowpack for the western US is looking pretty good! Our nearby basins are back up to 100%.
As of today, the Upper San Juan snotel is at 103% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 105%.
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this storm!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The low pressure system has moved over northeast CO.  Wrap-around moisture and areas of snow are over the northern half of the state.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The low pressure system has moved over northeast CO.  Wrap-around moisture and areas of snow are over the northern half of the state.
Radar this morning – Though radar doesn’t show it (like usual), there is very light snow falling in our area out of thin stratus clouds. The cold air is wringing out the little bit of moisture left.  This type of snow is nearly always light and only amounts to a dusting.
Radar this morning – Though radar doesn’t show it (like usual), there is very light snow falling in our area out of thin stratus clouds. The cold air is wringing out the little bit of moisture left.  This type of snow is nearly always light and only amounts to a dusting.

Today… Hit and miss snowshowers are possible, especially in the afternoon and over the mountains.  Up to an inch of snow is possible in the mountains and parts of the valley could get a dusting.

 Wednesday through Sunday… Ridging will build over the region and we’ll see a gradual clearing trend. Patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas tomorrow morning.

Thursday night/Friday a weak little trough could move through and kick up a few spotty snowshowers, but my confidence is low.

Temps through Friday will be 10-15 degrees below average – brrrr. This weekend will be a little warmer, but temps will still be 5-10 degrees below average.

Monday and beyond… The forecast models are all over the place but lean towards mostly dry. A couple of forecast models show a weak system around the 21st/22nd so let’s hope that turns into something to get excited about!

The CPC 6-10 day temp outlook on the left expects lower than average temps for us.  The 6-10 day precip outlook on the right expects below average precip
The CPC 6-10 day temp outlook on the left expects lower than average temps for us.  The 6-10 day precip outlook on the right expects below average precip
The CPC 8-14 day temp outlook on the left expects lower than average temps for us.  The 8-14 day precip outlook on the right expects below average precip.
The CPC 8-14 day temp outlook on the left expects lower than average temps for us.  The 8-14 day precip outlook on the right expects below average precip.

Unfortunately I agree with these products and expect below average precip.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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