It’s going to snow tomorrow! …

It’s time to wash your cars and do your snow dances! – Pics taken 12/10/2022

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Sunday – 11 Dec 2022 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 18. The upper Piedra was the cold spot at 1 degree. The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
40	60 / 1906	7	-18 / 1909

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Patches of mid and upper level clouds will move through today, but we’ll see lots of sun. An active low pressure system is sitting off the West Coast and will track through our area tomorrow.

*Radar this morning – It’s good to see precip over much of the western US! Precip will move east with the low.*

The rest of today… We’ll be mostly sunny during the day and then clouds will increase overnight.

Tomorrow… A fairly strong system will move through. The first few spotty snowshowers will start in the mountains during the early morning hours and after sunrise in the valley. The best chance for snow is 9am to 6pm. Scattered snowshowers will linger through the night, especially over the mountains.

*** There will be periods of snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for elevations above 6,500ft in the San Juan River basin for 2-5” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph valid on Monday from 5am to 5pm. This includes Pagosa Springs. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 6-12” of snow and locally higher amounts, and winds gusting to 45mph valid on Monday from 5am to 11pm. ***

My snow forecast:

Valley: 2-5”

Mountains: 8-12”

*The NWS snowfall forecast shows 3-4” for Pagosa Springs and 12-18” in our mountains. I expect Wolf Creek to sneak into the bottom of that range.*

*NBM forecast radar from 2am tonight to 5pm tomorrow afternoon – Snowshowers start over our mountains 4-5am and over the valley after 8am. This model expects the heaviest snow 10am to 4pm.*

Tuesday through Friday… Hit and miss snowshowers are possible through Tuesday, especially over the mountains. Up to an inch of snow is possible in the mountains and parts of the valley could get a dusting. Then ridging will build over the region and we’ll see a gradual clearing trend. Patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Temps Tuesday and Wednesday will be 10-15 degrees below average – brrrr. Thursday and Friday will be a little warmer, but temps will still be 5-10 degrees below average.

Saturday and beyond… The forecast models are fluctuating considerably. Right now it’s a coin toss between the pattern staying active or going dry.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.***
*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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