Just high cirrus clouds today. Pagosa Peak will look very different on Friday morning with a bunch of new snow. – Pic taken 11/1/2022
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Tuesday – 1 Nov 2022 – 2:45pm
Announcement: On Thursday, 3 Nov, at 6:45pm Arleen will be discussing the winter outlook at the PLPOA Clubhouse with the San Juan Outdoor Club. The presentation is open to the public.
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 56 and the low this morning was 25. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday.
Precip summary… There was no precip in the last 2 days.
Today through Wednesday afternoon… Ridging is in control. Patches of high clouds will move through today and we’ll stay dry. Clouds and winds will increase tomorrow afternoon after the ridge moves through. Temps will be near average.
Wednesday night through Friday… A pretty strong system is expected to move through the Four Corners area. The latest track for the low pushes it nearly over our heads between midnight Thursday and sunrise Friday.
For travelers, keep a close eye on travel conditions, including the higher sections along I-40 through AZ and NM. In those areas 40-50mph winds and brief periods of poor visibility could be a problem.
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the mountains above 9,000ft for 12” to 20” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph for Wednesday evening through Friday morning. *** This lines up nicely with my snow forecast, but I think the winds could be a little stronger in the mountains on Thursday.
Wednesday evening and overnight… The chance for precip will ramp up through the night. The snow level will be around 8,500ft.
Valley below 8,500ft… Mostly rain with a few occasional snowflakes – no snow accumulation
Mountains above 9,000ft… 5-8” of snow and winds to 45mph
Thursday morning to late afternoon… The snow level will bounce around between 8,000ft and 8,500ft and temps will be above freezing so snow will have trouble sticking in the valley.
Below 8,000ft: Mostly rain occasionally mixed snow – no snow accumulation
Above 8,000ft in the valley: wet snow occasionally mixed with rain – 1-2” of slushy snow on cold surfaces
Above 9,000ft in the mountains: 8-12” and winds to 50mph
Thursday evening to Friday morning… The snow level will drop below 7,000ft and surface temps will drop resulting in snow for the valley. Typical of these systems, moisture will decrease as temps drop which makes the snow forecast tricky.
Below 8,000ft: 1-3”
Above 8,000ft in the valley: 2-4”
Above 9,000ft in the mountains: 3-6”
Friday… The bulk of the snow will be done by sunrise on Friday, and we’ll see gradual clearing with scattered snow showers through the day. Snow will be spotty with up to inch in the valley and 1-3” in the mountains.
Wild cards with this system…
– The amount of warm air. Less warm air than I expect will result in considerably more snow for the valley. Slightly warmer air will result in less snow.
– The amount of moisture Thursday night as temps cool, and the snow level lowers. If moisture decreases quickly, we’ll get less snow. If moisture sticks around, we’ll get a little more snow.
Total snowfall forecast…
Below 8,000ft: 1-3”
Above 8,000ft in the valley: 3-6”
Above 9,000ft in the mountains: 14-20”
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|54||71 / 1934||21||0 / 1929|
My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.